Recent heavy real estate policies continue, May 17, the real estate market ushered in a historical housing purchase boost policy, the central bank "four arrows", issued four major policies in succession. At the same time, the State Council made the latest tone on real estate. As well as the stimulation of the recent large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policy, it has become a new driving force for consumers. Driven by economic stimulus, market confidence has been greatly boosted, with a strong rally in commodity markets.
Under the macro positive boost, the market of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol rose rapidly. Among them, the PTA market has been rising since last Thursday. With the support of tightening costs and supply, the PTA market fluctuates higher. The spot market of PTA in East China has risen from 5775 yuan / ton to 5925 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.60%. From the supply side point of view, the recent increase in the maintenance of PTA devices, industry start dropped to 70% near the low, market supply tightened, the market to form a certain positive support. Ineos 1.25 million-ton PTA plant stopped for some reason on May 20th and is expected to take about 4 days. The load of Fuhaichuang 4.5 million-ton PTA plant was reduced to 50% on May 20th. The 2.5 million-ton PTA plant of Honggang Sinopec was shut down and overhauled as planned on May 6, and is currently being restarted. The 2.2 million-ton PTA plant of Jiaxing Sinopec stopped on May 4th and is scheduled to be overhauled for 2 weeks. Dongying Weilian 2.5 million-ton PTA plant was stopped as planned on May 7th and is expected to be overhauled for 40 days. The Hengli Huizhou 2.5 million-ton plant was temporarily suspended on May 6th and restarted on May 11th. The 2.2 million-ton plant of Hengli Sinopec was stopped for maintenance on May 5th. The 3.6 million-ton PTA plant of Yisheng new material began to be overhauled on May 15th for a period of 20 days. Downstream polyester load decreased slightly, enterprise production and marketing is relatively light, the procurement of raw materials to maintain a rigid demand. The international crude oil market fluctuates at a high level, and the cost promotes the market. In the later stage, with the restoration of the maintenance equipment, the market supply is expected to increase, which will form a certain pressure on the market.
The ethylene glycol market has been in a strong volatility pattern since last Monday. The supply side tightened, boosting the market mentality, the market bulls' confidence increased, driving the market to buy gas to pick up, and the focus of ethylene glycol market negotiations continued to rise. The market price of ethylene glycol in East China has risen from 4310 yuan / ton on May 11 to 4500 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.41%. On the supply side, the shipment volume of ethylene glycol port has increased recently, and the short-term port has maintained the pace of destocking. The 300000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Tongliao Gold Coal was stopped for maintenance on May 14th and is expected to last for 15-20 days. Henan Energy 200000 tons of ethylene glycol plant stopped to replace the catalyst on May 15, which is expected to last about 10 days. The start-up of ethylene glycol industry has decreased, and the market supply has shrunk, forming a favorable support for the market. However, with the restart of some maintenance equipment, the supply in China will increase, and the arrival of ethylene glycol to Hong Kong will increase this week. East China's main port is expected to have a tired bank, which will suppress the formation of China's ethylene glycol market in the later period.
Driven by the rise in the polyester cost market, the polyester product market began to rise slightly. Driven by the rising sentiment in the market, the production and sales of polyester enterprises have improved. Since the end of last week, polyester filament enterprises have reduced prices to sell goods at a profit, driving downstream buying enthusiasm, local market transactions have increased, and the average market production and sales has reached more than 80%. The production and sales of polyester staple fiber enterprises have increased, with an average production and sales of more than 50%. The production and marketing of polyester chip enterprises are better, and the average production and marketing of the market is more than 130%.
The main driving force of this round of polyester market rise is mainly from macro policy stimulus and commodity market atmosphere, but with the gradual digestion of macro benefits, the market will return to fundamentals, and in the later stage, with the increase of market supply pressure, the polyester demand end weakens, suppressing the formation of the market, and the market mentality tends to be cautious, so the polyester industry market will gradually tend to sort out in the later stage.
