After entering this week, the market trends of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have begun to show a polarized trend. The PTA market has remained weak due to the weakening of the supply and demand side, while the ethylene glycol market has turned stronger in the short term due to the support of good supply. Faced with high polyester costs, the polyester market has also become greatly divided.
First of all, from the perspective of PTA fundamentals, the maintenance of the 1.6 million-ton PX unit in Daxie upstream in Ningbo has been cancelled, and the early maintenance unit will be restored. Under the pressure of market supply, the PX market remains weak in the short term, and costs have exerted a certain pressure on the PTA market. After May, PTA companies concentrated on equipment maintenance, and the overall industry start-ups dropped to a low of around 70%, down 10.9% from the previous high. Due to boiler renovation and accidental shutdown for maintenance, the industry load of downstream polyester companies dropped to 86%, down 4.5% from the previous high. The decline is much smaller than that of raw material PTA. Therefore, PTA companies still maintain the pace of dewarehousing in the short term. Supported by supply contraction, PTA market The decline will be limited in the later period.
Judging from the supply and demand side of the ethylene glycol market, weekend ethylene glycol shipments data from the main port in East China increased month-on-month, and port inventories dropped sharply. In addition, the start of the ethylene glycol industry remained at a level above 50%, and the market supply shrank, which has a positive impact on the market. support. Although the downstream polyester load has declined, it is still at a high level, boosting the supply and demand side, and increasing the confidence of market bulls, driving the market buying gas to rebound. Therefore, the ethylene glycol market will remain strong and volatile in the short term.
Faced with high polyester costs, polyester companies have strong intentions to increase prices. The polyester market maintains a narrow range of fluctuations, and market production and sales have indeed shown greater differentiation. The production and sales of polyester enterprises remain light, and downstream stocking is more cautious. Only purchasing needs are maintained. The production and sales of enterprises remain at around 4- 5%. Therefore, the inventory pressure of polyester enterprises increases in the short term. Due to the tight supply of some polyester chips, some factories have expanded their discounts, and the market production and sales volume has increased, with the company's production and sales reaching as high as 90%. Supported by tightening spot resources, the short-term slice market is warmer. Boosted by price cuts by polyester bottle and chip companies, tenders for large orders from major downstream manufacturers have increased, mostly for third-quarter orders.
Recently, the international crude oil market has maintained a high level, and the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and geographical factors continues. Israel's military operations in the northern Gaza Strip continue, and geopolitical instability remains. Iraq's Oil Minister said that Iraq is committed to the voluntary production reduction agreement reached by OPEC+ and is eager to cooperate with member states to achieve greater stability in the global crude oil market. The market maintains a long-short game attitude. In the short term, the high probability of oil prices will still be a range volatility trend, and the upward and downward trends are not obvious. The cost side promotes the market. The supply and demand side of the polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market promotes the supply and demand side of the polyester raw material market. The market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. The polyester raw material side supports it. The polyester market offers will be slightly adjusted according to the cost. The downstream is cautious and the market production and sales are inconsistent. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later period, we will pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself.
