Lead: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, China's polyester market is beginning to be in a light finishing pattern. Most terminal weaving companies have stopped production and holidays, and most of the pre-holiday stocking has been completed. Market production and sales have remained weak. Most merchants have delisted from the market for rest, and most of the polyester market has entered a state of having a price but no market.
Since entering February, China's polyester market has maintained a weak and volatile pattern. The market trend of polyester raw materials is weak, which has put pressure on the market. East China PTA spot market weakened within a narrow range. The international crude oil market fell and under the influence of the off-season atmosphere, the PTA futures market fell back and adjusted. The spot basis strengthened within a narrow range. Traders and polyester factories were mainly in need of buying, and the market mentality was cautious. At present, the East China market negotiations refer to around 5860 yuan/ton. The market for ethylene glycol, another raw material for polyester, is narrow and weak. The weak commodity market atmosphere, coupled with weak terminal demand, has suppressed the market mentality. The focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market has slightly revised back, and the quotation in East China is around 4610 yuan/ton. The arrival of ethylene glycol from ports decreased, and port inventories dropped sharply, while downstream polyester loads continued to fall, and market transactions became weak.
The polyester market trend has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere has become lighter. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most end users have delisted from the market, and the market has entered a state of having prices and no markets. The overall production and sales of polyester companies remain at a low level of around 0-20%. Although the production and sales of polyester companies are weak, the overall inventory pressure of polyester companies is not large for the time being. After a large amount of downstream replenishment was concentrated in the early stage, the inventory of polyester enterprises dropped to a low level. Among them, the inventory of polyester chips enterprises existed for about 6-8 days, the inventory of polyester POY was about 10-12 days, and the inventory of polyester DTY was about 18-20 days., the inventory of polyester FDY was about 14-15 days, and the inventory of polyester staple fiber was about 8-10 days. In addition, at the end of the year, there were more polyester companies that reduced production or had holidays. The overall overhaul volume of the industry exceeded expectations. The overall start of the polyester industry dropped significantly. So far, the overall start of polyester companies has dropped below 80%, down 10 percentage points from the previous high. The unexpected decline in polyester load has also greatly alleviated the inventory pressure on polyester companies.
Since late January, terminal textile and weaving enterprises have increased their year-end holidays, and raw material procurement has gradually ended. At present, most enterprises have stopped production and holidays. Among them, the comprehensive start of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to a low level of around 10%, and the starting load of texturing machines has dropped to 12%. At the low level, the market demand side has weakened. It is expected to gradually return to the market after the 15th day of the first month, when terminal demand will slowly recover.
Recently, the international crude oil market has tended to consolidate, and the cost side has supported the market. At the end of the year, the atmosphere in China's overall commodity market was weak, which suppressed the market mentality. The polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets were driven by the supply and demand side. It is expected that the short-term market will adjust within a narrow range, supported by the polyester raw material side, and the polyester market offers will be based on the small adjustment of costs. As the off-season atmosphere deepens at the end of the year, most terminals have been on holiday, and market production and sales are scarce. Before the holiday, the polyester market will maintain a light finishing situation. Wait for the recovery of market demand after the holiday, and pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself in the later period.
