Lead: Since mid-January, China's polyester industry market has ushered in a wave of shocks and rising prices. Driven by the rising market atmosphere, downstream enthusiasm for replenishing goods at the end of the year has increased, and production and sales of enterprises have rebounded. Near the end of the year, the polyester raw material market is weakening, terminal stocking is coming to an end, and the market is about to enter the end of the year.
Since the 12th, the polyester raw material PTA market has continued to strengthen. The international crude oil market rose, the atmosphere in China's commodity market improved, and high cost support, coupled with financial support, promoted the market, and the PTA futures market fluctuated and rose. Hengli's 2.5 million-ton PTA plant was suspended for a short period of time on the 25th, which reduced market supply and boosted market mentality. The spot basis is strong, and traders and polyester factories are mainly in need of centralized replenishment, and transactions have improved in the distant months. As of the 29th, the East China PTA spot market rose to a maximum of around 6025 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the supply and demand side of the market weakened, the PTA market weakened slightly. Buying was sporadic and just needed, and overall trading turned weak.
The market for ethylene glycol, another raw material for polyester, continues to be in a strong and volatile market. The rise in the international crude oil market has boosted, the focus of negotiations on the ethylene glycol market has continued to rise slightly, and spot market prices have gradually reached new highs for the year. News of overseas installation parking and production reduction stimulated, market bulls 'confidence increased, ethylene glycol port inventories continued to decline, and the supply side provided positive support for the market. However, the downstream polyester load fell slightly, and the market was facing greater upward resistance due to expectations of weakening demand. By the end of the month, the quoted price in East China rose to 4710 yuan/ton, and firm trading was light.
As the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol rise, the cost side has strengthened its support for the market. Polyester manufacturers have raised their offers, and the market offers have risen accordingly; polyester factories have taken advantage of the increase in shipment sentiment, stimulating the increase in downstream replenishment at the end of the year., market production and sales rebounded. As market prices continue to rise, downstream enthusiasm for following up at the end of the month has decreased.
At the end of the year, the downstream polyester load continued to fall. At present, polyester start-up has dropped to around 82%, which is 6 percentage points lower than the previous high. The polyester load is still expected to decline in the later period. The number of holidays at the end of the year for terminal textile weaving has increased. At present, comprehensive weaving starts have dropped to a low level of around 40%. Most companies have stopped production for holidays, and raw material procurement has gradually ended. It is expected to gradually return to the market after late February, and the market demand side will weaken.
Recently, the international crude oil market has remained high, and the cost side has promoted the market. The polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market is driven by the supply and demand side. It is expected that the short-term market will adjust within a narrow range, supported by the polyester raw material side. The polyester market offers will be slightly adjusted mainly based on costs. As the off-season atmosphere deepens at the end of the year, terminals are sporadic replenishment is the main focus, and market production and sales are very light. It is expected that the polyester market will enter the final stage of having prices and no markets next week. In the later period, we will pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself.
