Analysis of current basis difference in caustic soda period:
Since the caustic soda futures were listed, the current basis trend in the caustic soda period is shown in the figure above. The settlement price difference between 32% ionic membrane caustic soda discount price and caustic soda SH2405 contract reached a maximum of 452 on October 16th. The base difference between the closing price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda and the closing price of caustic soda SH2405 contract also reached a maximum of 467 on October 16th.
Caustic soda spot price 32% ion membrane caustic soda price trend and futures price trend show phased differences. First of all, at the initial stage of caustic soda futures listing, the futures price and spot price trend are similar, but from September 22 to October 23, the cash basis difference of this stage is large, and on October 16. The settlement price difference of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda discount price and caustic soda SH2405 contract and the closing price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda discount price and caustic soda SH2405 contract reached the maximum values of 452 and 467 respectively. At the same time, this stage is also a turning point for the futures market and the spot market. the spot market changes from rising to falling, but the difference is that futures prices fall relatively fast. the spot price began to fall significantly after a period of weak shock, so the cash base spread at this stage is relatively large. Then from late October near the end of October until now, the two markets are in the stage of low volatility, while the basis narrowed, this stage of the current basis fluctuated between 6.75 and 250.
Analysis of caustic soda position:
Since the listing of caustic soda futures on September 15, 2023, the overall position of caustic soda SH2405 contract has increased at first and then decreased. First of all, the first day of listing, caustic soda SH2405 contract position of 30330 hands, the first day (September 15) position is the lowest since the listing of the day, October 23 position is the largest, at 113158 hands; and October 17-October 30 this stage, the position is above 100, 000 hands, is so far the higher position stage. As of December 15, the position of caustic soda SH2405 contract is 52921 lots.
Analysis on the trend of caustic soda futures:
Since caustic soda futures listed on the market, the overall price shows a "up-down-low shock" trend. First of all, in the early days of the listing, the futures rose for three consecutive days, reaching 3148, the highest point since the listing on the fourth day, and then began a continuous downward trend on the fifth day. After falling for 16 consecutive days, the futures price of caustic soda SH2405 contract fell to the lowest level of 2504 on October 20, and did not fall below the 2500 mark. Subsequently, the price rebounded somewhat, but the overall rebound was not strong enough, and the short sentiment on the market was more obvious. For two consecutive days on November 9 and November 10, the futures price showed a phased market, with intraday price fluctuations above 100 points in both days, and periodic highs and lows appeared at the same time. Then the futures price continued to oscillate up and down the middle rail of the Bolin belt, and on December 7 and December 8, the disk showed periodic highs and lows again. However, the intraday volatility range of the market on December 7 is not large, and there is a big market again on December 8, with intraday price fluctuations as high as 194 points. In recent days, futures prices have fluctuated between tracks in the Bollinger belt.
