Introduction: with the gradual end of the peak demand season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the off-season of terminal textile demand is coming, the market trading atmosphere begins to cool, and the future demand is expected to weaken, which suppresses the market mentality of the whole polyester industry. short-term prices in China's polyester market remain low and volatile.
China's polyester industry market did not perform well in the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten" demand season. The polyester industry market fluctuated all the way from late September to October 23, the polyester industry market gradually hit bottom. On October 24, the central government will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds in 2023 in the fourth quarter of this year. The policy has given a boost to the market, coupled with the improvement of Sino-US relations, the atmosphere of the commodity market has improved, and the polyester industry market has rebounded slightly at the end of the month. However, under the geopolitical influence of the conflict between Palestine and Israel, the shock of the international crude oil market intensified, which suppressed the mentality of the whole market, and the market uncertainty increased, so the pull strength of the whole polyester market was weak.
China's polyester market has been in a weak trend for a long time, the production and marketing data of polyester enterprises are poor, and the production and sales of polyester enterprises have been maintained at a low level of 40% and 60% for a long time. In addition, since the end of the Asian Games, the polyester plant that reduced production or stopped in the early stage has gradually resumed, the start-up of the industry as a whole has risen to a high level near 90%, and the market supply has increased, so the inventory pressure of polyester enterprises has gradually increased. By the end of last week, polyester POY factory warehouse existed for 16-18 days, FDY factory warehouse for 20-22 days, DTY inventory for 27-30 days, and polyester staple factory inventory for 7-10 days. Under the market of polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol rebounding at the end of the month, the polyester filament market is coming out of the trend that runs counter to the raw materials, and polyester filament manufacturers began to significantly reduce prices and promote sales, especially last weekend, polyester filament enterprises let profit delivery, downstream centralized replenishment, enterprise production and sales volume, some enterprise production and sales data as high as 400% of 600%.
With the price reduction and promotion of polyester enterprises, while the market of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol continues to rebound slightly, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises is gradually increasing, and the production cash flow of polyester enterprises is gradually squeezed, especially the production losses of polyester enterprises are intensified, and the profits of polyester chips are reduced to the profit and loss line. Up to now, the profit of polyester chip product is 16 yuan / ton, polyester bottle chip product profit is-274 yuan / ton, polyester filament product profit is-389 yuan / ton, polyester staple product profit is 106 yuan / ton.
Although the current start-up of terminal weaving enterprises is still at a high level around 80%, with the gradual end of the peak demand season, the characteristics of textile off-season begin to appear. The atmosphere of the terminal textile market has cooled down, the market is mainly dominated by rigid demand orders, there is not enough new orders for enterprises, grey cloth inventory remains high, the situation of goods in the market is general, the Christmas orders for foreign trade are gradually over, and the expectation of terminal orders for the future is weak, which is a drag on the confidence of weaving enterprises to start up, and the market wait-and-see mood is obvious. With the gradual weakening of the demand of the textile industry, the weaving start-up load will decline seasonally in the later period.
International crude oil high fluctuations, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market driven by the cost end, the short-term market will maintain a narrow adjustment, under high cost pressure, the short-term polyester market will fluctuate with the cost, but with the end demand off-season approaching, demand weakening expectations, the later polyester market still faces greater pressure. Pay close attention to the changes of raw material market and demand side in the later stage.
