Polyester: Upstream and downstream pressure polyester market is weak and difficult to change

Introduction: since late September, China's polyester market continues to be in a concussive callback trend, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market continues to decline, lack of cost support, polyester market gradually downward, coupled with the terminal demand off-season is coming, lack of market confidence, China's polyester market is difficult to get rid of the weak pattern.

Since September 18, the polyester industry market has been gradually callback from a high level. The high volatility of international crude oil has intensified, especially since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, traders have become more worried about whether the war in the Middle East can be extended to oil-producing areas, and the frequent rise and fall of international crude oil has aggravated the uncertainty of the atmosphere of China's commodity market, the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is weak, and polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol futures are volatile. Since October, China's PTA plant overhaul increased, the overall start of the industry fell to more than 70%, ethylene glycol port inventory continued to remove, polyester raw material market supply decreased, while the downstream polyester load rebounded slightly to 9% near the high, polyester overall supply and demand side is good, but the market bearish mentality is strong, enterprise production and sales light, the polyester market formation suppression, polyester market is in a concussion callback trend. As of the 23rd, spot negotiations in the PTA market fell to around 5720 yuan / ton. This week and next week, the main port delivery 01 litres of water 20-25 yuan near the deal and negotiations. The quotation of ethylene glycol in East China is around 3960 yuan / ton.

With the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market price callback, polyester enterprises production cost pressure has been reduced, and the decline in China's polyester market is less than the raw material market decline, so the overall profit level of Chinese polyester enterprises rebounded slightly, only polyester bottle chip enterprise production is still in a state of loss, polyester filament production enterprises are in a small profit state, polyester staple fiber and polyester chip profits maintain low fluctuations. Up to now, the profit of polyester chip product is 185 yuan / ton, polyester bottle chip product profit is-125 yuan / ton, polyester filament product profit is 70 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber product profit is 220 yuan / ton.

After the Asian Games, the production reduction or parking devices of polyester enterprises in the early stage gradually resumed, and the start-up of the polyester industry as a whole rebounded steadily, but the polyester bottle-chip enterprises continued to lose money, so the production reduction and suspension of polyester bottle-chip enterprises increased, and the overall start-up of the polyester industry was restrained. At present, the start-up of the polyester industry is around 90%. The main reason why the production of polyester enterprises has always maintained a high load is that the inventory pressure of the enterprises is relatively small. While the market fluctuates frequently, the production and marketing of polyester enterprises are improved through price reduction and promotion. Therefore, the inventory of polyester enterprises has been maintained at a reasonable and controllable level. By the end of last week, polyester POY factory warehouse existed for 15-17 days, FDY factory warehouse for 20-22 days, DTY inventory for 27-29 days, and polyester staple factory inventory for 7-10 days. In the absence of greater sales pressure, polyester enterprises are more active in production.

At present, the terminal textile is still in the peak consumption season, in which the comprehensive start of weaving is still maintained at about 80%, the start of texturing enterprises is around 85%, and the start of printing and dyeing enterprises is also maintained at around 80%. However, with the deep impact of the off-season atmosphere, market orders follow up and slow down, and the weaving load is expected to decline gradually in the later period, which suppresses the market mentality.

International crude oil high fluctuations, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market driven by the cost end, the short-term market will maintain a narrow adjustment, under cost pressure, short-term polyester enterprise profits will maintain low fluctuations, but with the end of the traditional peak season of terminal demand, demand weakening expectations, the polyester market is still facing greater pressure. Pay close attention to the changes of raw material market and demand side in the later stage.