Recently, China's ethanol market has been weakened, companies have struggled to hold prices, and downstream companies are just in need of procurement. Due to the negative impact of corn on costs, the price of by-product ddgs continues to weaken, corporate inventories increase, subsidized ethanol production costs decline, and dried cassava fluctuates at high levels. The supply of ethanol in Northeast China has increased, while there is insufficient construction in East China. Some factories in Henan have fluctuated slightly, and the overall supply is sufficient. Downstream chemical ethyl acetate started normally. As of press time, the market price of ethanol in China was 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton for general grade in Jilin, 6,450 - 6,600 yuan/ton for general grade in Heilongjiang, 6,850 -6900 yuan/ton for superior grade in Henan, and 6900 yuan/ton for general grade in East China and northern Jiangsu.
Negative impact on cost: At present, the temperature in Northeast China has not dropped significantly, the sales pressure of trendy grains is obvious, and the demand for building warehouses by trading entities is lagging behind. The short-term market is still in a stage of obvious oversupply, and the upward momentum of the market price center is obviously insufficient. Pressure on the supply of new products on the market, holders of aged corn have increased their willingness to ship and the shipment speed has accelerated. The price of corn in China's main producing areas is 2,323 - 2,448 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang, 2480 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 2,730 -279 yuan/ton in Henan. Under the influence of the Belt and Road policy, let's pay attention to the situation of Russian agricultural and sideline products: Russia's agricultural product output totaled 152 million tons, with exports of 62.27 million tons; among them, wheat, barley, sunflower seeds, corn, and soybeans rank among the top 5. Wheat and barley together account for 70% of output, and exports account for 91%. Russia's output of agricultural and sideline products totaled 22.3 million tons, with exports of 10.1 million tons; of which sunflower oil and sunflower meal were the main ones. China imported a total of 3 million tons of Russian agricultural products from October to August. The top 5 are: soybeans, sunflower oil, sunflower meal, rapeseed and corn. Based on the annual purchase of 6 million tons of Russian products, it is estimated that an additional 3 million tons of imports will be needed every year. Demand for by-product ddgs is limited, ethanol plants have a high level of construction, some companies have a positive shipping mentality, price cuts stimulate shipments, and the inventory of high-priced companies has increased, which may continue to be weak. In terms of dried cassava sales in inventory, Chinese cassava ethanol companies are not willing to purchase raw materials after the price has risen to a high level, resulting in excessive inventory consumption. Some companies have dried cassava stocks until the end of this month or around the middle of next month.
Supply: Some enterprises in Northeast China basically maintain normal operation when they have heating. Affected by the shortage of raw materials, some enterprises in East China are currently running out of raw materials at the end of the month, and the other will run out of raw materials in mid-November. No updates have been heard in the subsequent period, and there is a possibility of a decline in start-up in the later period. Henan basically maintains normal production (except for boiler problems).
In terms of ethyl acetate downstream, acetic acid prices continue to weaken, costs are negative, downstream are still in need of procurement, and prices may continue to weaken. Ethyl methyl carbonate has been put into production capacity one after another, but the downstream lithium battery market has suffered losses, resulting in limited overall starting of raw materials.
