Introduction: during the National Day holiday, international crude oil prices fell sharply, opening after the festival, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market shocks fell, the lack of cost support, the polyester market began to continue to decline, although polyester enterprises continue to reduce prices, but the market production and sales is still light.
During the National Day holiday, although US commercial crude oil stocks declined, US fuel demand weakened, the superimposed macroeconomic outlook was bleak, and international oil prices fell sharply. Cost pressure on the market, the first day after the festival, China's polyester raw material market has fallen, East China PTA spot market continued to callback, negotiations around 5910 yuan / ton. Ethylene glycol market low offer, the focus of market negotiations continue to fall, East China quotation around 3950 yuan / ton. Under the negative pressure on the cost side, the focus of the polyester market fell. From the 6th to 9th, Saudi Arabia continued to be optimistic about the outlook for Asian demand, and some economic data improved. With the continuation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, geo-events led to increased supply concerns and higher international oil prices. At the beginning of the week, the polyester raw material market rebounded slightly, but the strength was weak. With the decline of international crude oil, the commodity market atmosphere weakens, suppressing the formation of the market, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market pullback, so the polyester market continues to decline.
With the decline of polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises is slightly reduced, and the production profit of polyester enterprises is slightly better than that before the festival. Polyester bottle chip enterprises continued to lose money, polyester chips and polyester enterprise profits rebounded slightly. Up to now, the profit of slicing products is 150 yuan / ton, up 87 yuan / ton compared with pre-festival; bottle chip product profit is-200 yuan / ton, up 87 yuan / ton; polyester filament product profit is 65 yuan / ton, up 17 yuan / ton; polyester staple fiber product profit is 170 yuan / ton, 42 yuan / ton higher than before festival.
Polyester market continues to decline, the market bearish atmosphere is strong, downstream overall inquiry is limited, enterprise production and marketing is light. Only on the 11th, most polyester manufacturers lowered their quotations, concentrated on profit delivery, and the focus of market transactions shifted downward. Downstream small batch replenishment positions, local market production and sales pick up, polyester some enterprises production and sales as high as 200% Mel 300%, higher production and sales up to 500% Mel 600%. However, most of the time, the production and sales of polyester factories are deserted, and the production and sales of enterprises are maintained at 30%, 60%, so the inventory of finished products in polyester factories began to accumulate substantially. Up to now, polyester POY factory library exists for 15-17 days, polyester FDY factory library for 20-23 days, polyester DTY library for 25-28 days, and staple fiber factory library for 8-10 days.
Although the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, it has not had a direct impact on crude oil production and transportation. Saudi Arabia indicated that it was working with regional and international partners to prevent the escalation of the conflict and reaffirmed its determination to stabilize the oil market. The market maintains a long-short game posture, and the high probability of oil prices will remain the trend of high volatility in the short term. Polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market supply and demand side improvement, coupled with the weakening of macro bearish, it is expected that the short-term market will be narrow adjustment, polyester raw material end support, polyester market offer will be slightly adjusted with the cost, downstream cautious wait-and-see-based, maintain rigid demand for stock. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of the raw material market and the supply and demand of polyester itself.
