Lead: In the first half of 2023, China's petroleum coke market was weakened under the influence of the continued contradiction between supply and demand. Downstream demand was weak to follow up. Port inventories hit record highs repeatedly. Manufacturers had difficulties in shipping. Under the influence of multiple negative interests, the overall performance of the Chinese market was sluggish. However, after entering the second half of the year, with the gradual release of downstream demand, manufacturers 'shipments improved, boosted market sentiment, and supported the price of petroleum coke began to rise.
After entering late June, with the arrival of the flood season in the south, the starting load of electrolytic aluminum and metal silicon enterprises in the southwest region has continued to increase. The aluminum carbon market has supported and stabilized, which has driven petroleum coke manufacturers to ship to a certain extent. At present, the electrolytic aluminum market in Southwest China is steadily improving. According to incomplete statistics, in July 2023, China's electrolytic aluminum operating production capacity was approximately 42.2 million tons. The market started to maintain a high position, and some aluminum plants did not have supporting carbon units in production. Therefore, there is high enthusiasm for purchasing pre-baked anodes outside the market. Most pre-baked anode manufacturers have shipped smoothly, and the overall inventory pressure of the company is not large. As the shipment situation of anode companies improves, the demand for medium and high-sulfur coke is also steadily increasing. To a certain extent, it supports the increase in the price of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke.
As downstream demand improves, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is gradually easing, and the inventory in the port area is also in a state of being removed. At present, the arrival of imported ships and cargo in the port has decreased compared with the previous period. Although some domestic petroleum coke has been collected at the port, it has been affected by downstream demand. Demand has driven the speed of petroleum coke evacuation from the port to increase significantly, and the total port inventory has gradually decreased, which has boosted market prices to a certain extent. As of August 10, the total inventory in the port area was approximately 5.1 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons compared with last week (August 4). It is expected that the port's petroleum coke inventory will still or will continue to be removed from the warehouse in the short term, but in the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to the arrival and unloading of imported ships and cargo in the port.
Looking at the market outlook, with the release of downstream demand, the overall shipment situation of manufacturers is improving. Currently, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum work in Southwest China has come to an end, and the growth rate of market start-up has also begun to slow down. On-site demand is relatively stable, and there is still a certain amount of positive support for the price of medium and high sulfur coke; the graphite cathode has started to maintain low-load operation, which has insufficient support for market shipments of high-quality low-sulfur coke; the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of ordinary quality low-sulfur coke has increased. On the whole, downstream demand is gradually improving, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is easing, and the mentality of operators has improved. Some companies still have the sentiment of supporting prices under the influence of little inventory pressure. It is expected that prices in the Chinese market will be consolidated at a high level in the short term, and it is not ruled out that there may be a possible increase in coke prices for some models, but we need to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil, the operation of Chinese equipment and the follow-up of downstream demand in the later period.
