Recently, China's ethanol market has continued to rise slightly, and the main factors supporting the rise are: first, the Heilongjiang factory has limited shipments, and the market trade circulation has declined; second, the Jilin factory has been overhauled, although it has recently recovered, there is not much inventory and the stock is limited; Third, some major factories in East China have not shipped goods, and the market spot is limited; Fifth, the cost of corn fluctuates at a high level, and the price of dried cassava continues to rise; Sixth, as the two festivals approach, the purchase of liquor has increased, and chemical products have just needed to purchase; 7. The fuel ethanol market is mainly engaged in procurement, while local refineries are actively purchasing and replenishment is obvious. Under this background, the main producing companies are more enthusiastic about producing fuel, and the consumption starts to maintain a low load.
Can the rally continue?
Current situation of ethanol supply in China:
Dongning was shut down, Baoquanling was shut down, COFCO Zhaodong was in normal condition, Wanli's equipment was mainly produced fuel, Hongzhan's four factories were normally mainly produced fuel, Heilongjiang Shenglong was shut down (there is a start-up plan in late September), Zhongke Green Production, Fuyu Huihai was shut down (there is a start-up plan in early September); Fukang Plant Production, Tianyu Production, Shuntong were shut down, Dongfeng Hualiang was shut down, Xintianlong was normal, and Limu was shut down. Huadong Flower Hall returned to normal, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin shutdown, Guohua shutdown, Changxing production, Longhe production, Romaite production, Suchun shutdown, Fulaichun continued to shutdown, Maibohui shutdown, and Lianhai production. Plant production in Mengzhou, Henan Province (some factories have plans to increase production in the short term). Jufeng shut down. Produced in Ruiyang, Chifeng, and produced in Zhalantun. Jilin's fuel is normal, and SDIC Tieling produces it. Produced by Tianguan Nanyang. Produced by SDIC Helen. SDIC Jidong inputs.
In the short term, the main fuel production strategy of major producers in Northeast China remains unchanged, and downstream refineries have pre-holiday stocking conditions, supporting fuel prices to remain stable. In terms of edible ethanol, the Heilongjiang factory in Northeast China continues to maintain low-load production to support high prices. The short-term inventory of Jilin Dachang was not high after the start of construction. With the support of pre-holiday stocking, the price was mainly stable. After the concentrated increase in raw materials in Henan in mid-September, the cost may decline, and the cost side is negative. Two sections of liquor trucks driving the return journey from Sichuan to drive consumption. Downstream chemicals are affected by high prices in other regions and cross-regional arbitrage in Henan has opened up. There is a possibility that chemicals may be purchased from Henan, and the demand side is good. As the supply of raw materials increases, individual companies may increase their production lines, and the supply side is negative. The increase in output of major factories in East China and northern Jiangsu has alleviated the supply of some sources of goods, but the pressure on cost is great. The production cost is mostly above 7100 yuan/ton. The company has suffered a large loss in production. The company is not willing to actively reduce its offer unless the demand is followed up. Limited, prices will passively weaken.
