Lead: China's polyester cost pressure continues to remain high. After the polyester raw material PTA market experienced a pull-up in mid-to-late August, the market began to weaken this week. However, another polyester raw material ethylene glycol market began to rise again. Driven by high costs, the polyester market can only passively follow the raw material market.
Since the second half of this year, China's polyester market has been under pressure from high costs. The international crude oil has been firm and the cost side has been boosted. Since July, the PTA spot market in China's PTA market has begun to rise sharply. Entering August, China's PTA market The market maintains a high and volatile pattern. In mid-to-late August, China's PTA market fluctuated again. The rise in international crude oil boosted, and China's commodity atmosphere was generally good. PTA futures rose. As of September 1, the East China PTA spot market fluctuated higher to 6210 yuan/ton. After entering this week, as the cost-drive weakened, PTA futures surged higher and fell back, and the spot market fell accordingly.
After experiencing range fluctuations in August, the market for ethylene glycol, another raw material for polyester, began to fluctuate and rise in September. The international crude oil market remained firm, coal prices rose, and cost support was strengthened, driving market bullish sentiment. Shipping in the port area was good. Inventories in the main port of East China were slightly reduced, and the ethylene glycol market was gradually rising. So far, the price in East China has ranged around 4,120 - 4,125 yuan/ton. However, the downstream willingness to receive goods is average, and the transaction is deadlocked.
As the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol continue to rise, the pressure on production costs of polyester companies continues to increase. The polyester market is dragged down by weak supply and demand, and the market has great resistance to follow-up. The growth rate of the polyester market is not as good as that of the raw materials market. As a result, the overall profitability of Chinese polyester companies continues to fall, and most products begin to fall into the dilemma of losing money. Since early July, the production of polyester bottle chips and polyester filament companies has begun to fall into a state of loss, and the profits of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips have hovered near the profit and loss line. As of now, the profit of polyester chip products is 39 yuan/ton, the profit of polyester bottle chip products is-252 yuan/ton, the profit of polyester filament products is-56 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber products is 39 yuan/ton.
The international crude oil market is firm at a high level, and costs still support the market. Due to the reduction in production and maintenance of some units, the industry's start-up has been reduced, while downstream polyester demand has followed suit. It is expected that there will be limited room for market decline in the short term. High inventory pressure still exists in the ethylene glycol market, another raw material for polyester. The downstream polyester purchasing mentality lacks sustainability. In the short term, China's ethylene glycol market remains strong, but the supply and demand structure leads to insufficient upward momentum. Polyester raw materials have promoted the market. The polyester market offers will be adjusted slightly according to the raw materials. Downstream just needs to stock up, and market production and sales are average. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later period, we will pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and demand side.
