Lead: Recently, the polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol markets have maintained high fluctuations. Under the support of cost, the market focus of polyester products has remained firm. With the approaching peak season of traditional demand for the "Golden September and Silver Ten", can China's polyester market usher in improvements?
From a cost perspective, international oil prices have remained above US$80 per barrel due to declining oil inventories and cuts in supply by OPEC and its production reduction allies. Markets expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels a day to October as the country seeks to further support the market. The crude oil market is currently in a structurally supported environment. Concerns that further U.S. interest rate hikes could weaken demand, while forecasts that a tropical storm along the U.S. Gulf Coast could disrupt supply support crude oil prices. The cost side continues to provide support for the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets. At present, the starting load of PTA has increased to a high level of more than 80%. However, after September, the maintenance of PTA units will be reduced and the market supply will increase. PTA may enter the depot channel. With the increase in the start-up of ethylene glycol companies, the market supply has increased. In addition, the high inventory in the port is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the supply pressure in the ethylene glycol market is also greater. Therefore, the polyester raw material market is suppressed by the supply side, and the market may continue to maintain high fluctuations.
From the perspective of the polyester market itself, China's polyester market has remained strong recently under the support of high costs, but the profits of polyester companies are still low. Among them, polyester bottle chips and polyester silk production are still at a loss, and polyester chips and polyester staple fiber production is at a low profit. At present, the load on Chinese polyester enterprises is still at a high level of more than 90%. During the Hangzhou Asian Games in September, polyester enterprises and weaving terminals in the Xiaoshao area are still expected to limit production. Currently, only some companies have clear plans to reduce and stop production. Most companies have no Clear and detailed production restriction plans, coupled with the upcoming peak demand season, there may be limited room for polyester load to fall back in the later period.
Judging from terminal textile demand, at present, the trading atmosphere in the textile market is gradually active, market orders have improved, orders for terminal weaving winter cold-proof and warm-keeping fabrics have been gradually issued, the transaction speed of autumn and winter fabric shipments has increased, and the inventory of grey fabric factories has gradually declined. The market "Gold September Silver Ten" atmosphere has begun to start, and the starting load of weaving companies has maintained a slight increase since mid-August. Market confidence has been boosted and September is about to enter, and expectations for improvement in the terminal textile market have increased.
On the whole, the market still has certain expectations for the upcoming traditional demand for "Golden September and Silver Ten". With the increase in terminal textile orders and the rebound in weaving starts, the mentality of the entire polyester market has been boosted to a certain extent. The international crude oil market is firm at a high level, and cost support is still in place. The supply and demand sides of the polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol markets are weak. In the short term, the market will be adjusted at a high level. Polyester raw materials will promote the market. The polyester market offers will be mainly adjusted slightly, and the downstream will be cautious. Wait and see, maintain the need for replenishment. It is expected that China's polyester market prices may fluctuate within a narrow range in the later period. In the later period, we will pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and terminal demand.
