Brief analysis of the fuel ethanol market in the first half of 2023

The total effective production capacity of fuel ethanol in China in the first half of 2023 is 5.55 million tons / year, with some co-production capacity of fermented ethanol, and 45000 tons of new production capacity in Jinze, Guizhou Province in the first half of the year.

Brief introduction of fuel ethanol Market in the first half of the year

The price of fuel ethanol market in China was relatively strong in the first half of 2023, with an increase in travel volume and terminal sales in the post-epidemic era. In addition, the relative profit of producing fuel ethanol is higher than that of other varieties, and the enthusiasm of producing fuel in the main producing areas of Northeast China is higher, and the output of fuel ethanol in the first half of the year is higher than that in the same period of previous years. Specifically, during the traditional Spring Festival in January, the increase in travel volume, driven by terminal demand, and active stock preparation by two oil and local refineries led to a rise in the market price of fuel ethanol. From January to February, the price of fuel ethanol in China rose to the highest point in the first half of the year, and the price of fuel ethanol in Heilongjiang reached 6900 yuan per ton. In March, the demand for fuel prices began to weaken, the increment of coal-based ethanol impacted some markets, and the decline in demand for fermented ethanol led to a slight weakening of prices. Judging from the price of fuel ethanol in the first half of the year, the fluctuation range was not large at about 200 yuan / ton.

Profit trend of fuel ethanol in Heilongjiang in the first half of 2023

The average profit of fuel ethanol in Heilongjiang region of China in the first half of 2023 is 81.73 yuan / ton, the lowest profit in the first half of the year is-353 yuan / ton in early January, the price of fuel ethanol in early January is at the lowest point, the price of corn is 2700 yuan / ton, ddgs3000 yuan / ton is high, the cost is high, and the profit is upside down due to the low price. The highest profit in the first half of the year is about May-June, the highest value is 417.5 yuan / ton, the price of raw corn is about 2400 yuan / ton, and the price of cost fuel ethanol is between 6750 and 6800 yuan / ton. the comprehensive fuel profit is better than that of other ethanol varieties.

Supply of fuel ethanol in the first half of the year

Profit-driven fuel ethanol production in China in the first half of the year, large factories were more active in producing fuel in the first half of the year, with a total output of 2 million tons from January to June. There were more outages in fuel enterprises in April, and the output this month was on the low side. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Jixian factory began rotation inspection in April, the two lines stopped production for a total of 21 days, Jilin fuel shutdown for about a month, Guotou Jidong began to shut down in early April and has not yet been in production. Guotou Tieling normal production, Helen downtime in April for 1 month and 12 days.

Downstream consumption of fuel ethanol

The downstream consumption of fuel ethanol in the first half of 2023 is about 1.9 million tons, all of which are ethanol gasoline consumption, which is divided into main consumption and local refinery consumption. The sales areas are East three provinces, Tianjin Global, Hebei part, Shandong part, Henan Global, Anhui Global, Jiangsu part, Hubei part, Guangxi part. According to incomplete statistics, the average monthly consumption of the main business is about 28-300000 tons, and the average monthly consumption of local refineries is expected to be about 40-60, 000 tons.

Second half of the year forecast

The new capacity in the second half of the year is mostly in coal-based ethanol, which is expected to increase by 1.3 million tons. 200000 tons of coal-based ethanol was put into production in the third quarter, and 1.1 million tons of coal-based ethanol is expected to be released in the fourth quarter (according to the actual production of enterprises). There is no plan to increase the production capacity of fermented fuel ethanol.

In the short term, Henan Tianguan Nanyang has a construction plan. However, the fuel ethanol plants in the main producing areas of Northeast China have maintenance plans, which are good in supply and strong in supporting prices, but at present, consumption in the lower reaches is general, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short-term fuel ethanol market. The consumption growth point is expected to lead before and after the National Day holiday in the fourth quarter. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil price, crude oil price uncertainty, affect the price trend of gasoline, thus affecting the downstream procurement of fuel ethanol.