On November 27, the methanol market price index was 2,236.32, an increase of 2.28 from yesterday and an increase of 0.10% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 26:
China CFR 298-300 US $/ton, down 1 US $/ton;
US FOB 121-122 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 344-345 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 424-425 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2545-2565 (-20), Zhejiang: 2610-2620 (-20), Anhui: 2520-2530 (10)
South China: Guangdong: 2545-2570 (10), Fujian: 2560-2600 (-10)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2440-2450 (0), North Shandong: 2440-2460 (0), Linyi: 2490-2500 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2280-2360 (0), Hebei: 2380-2420 (80)
Central China: Henan: 2370-2390 (10), Two Lakes: 2480-2620 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2240-2280 (0), northern Shaanxi: 2160-2170 (0), northern Inner Mongolia: 2155-2200 (0), southern Inner Mongolia: 2200 (0), Xinjiang: 1725-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2240-2510 (40), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2310-2550 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the methanol market price was consolidated at a high level, the futures market price fell back at a high level, and the port spot market price was adjusted with the market. However, the market price in China was consolidated at a high level supported by little inventory pressure, and the market transaction atmosphere was limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have increased within a narrow range. Today's price on the northern line is around 2,155 -2200 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday's price, and the southern line is 2200 yuan/ton. The low-end is stable. The supply pressure in the spot market in the region is not great, and the supply and low warehouse are low. Under the support of manufacturers, they have a lot of mentality to support prices, but considering the downstream ability to accept high-priced goods, the prices of bidding companies fell slightly in the afternoon. Market prices in Shandong, the consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,440 - 2,460 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The futures market has dropped from high levels. The players in the market are obviously cautious and are mainly in need of replenishment. The market quotation in North China is running strongly. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton at the low-end. The supply pressure in the region is not great, and manufacturers in the region are obviously in favor of prices, and the downstream just need to replenish the goods mainly; Shanxi region Today's quotation is 2,280 - 2,360 yuan/ton. At present, the main methanol futures market is weak and volatile, and downstream users are inclined to wait and see when entering the market.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures were weak and volatile. Paper arbitrage shipments are active, and buying orders have just been needed in recent months. The basis difference between long-term arbitrage and exchange buying is slightly weak. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot/11:2545-2565, basis 01-25/-21; 12:2560-2565, basis 01-10/-8; 12:2585-2590, basis 01+15/+20; 1:2605-2620, basis 01+36/+40.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, quoted prices in the China market have maintained high levels supported by little inventory pressure. However, as spot market prices continue to increase, some downstream players have certain resistance to the current high prices, and the market transaction atmosphere has weakened slightly. In addition, the futures market has dropped from the high level, and the market has gradually become wait-and-see mood. At present, due to the impact of the increase in methanol prices, some downstream cost pressures have been severely compressed, and the lack of follow-up demand may inhibit the increase in spot market prices. It is expected that the price range of the methanol market will be adjusted in the short term. It is not ruled out that market quotations in some regions will still have a narrow range. The possibility, but in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the profit and loss situation of the downstream market and the sentiment of replenishing the market.
