On November 26, the methanol market price index was 2,234.04, an increase of 17.56 from the previous working day and an increase of 0.79% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 25:
China CFR 300-301 US $/ton, down 2 US $/ton;
U.S. FOB 121-122 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon;
Southeast Asia CFR 344-345 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton;
European FOB 426-427 euros/ton, up 14 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2565 (0), Zhejiang: 2630-2640 (0), Anhui: 2510-2520 (0)
South China: Guangdong: 2535-2570 (-5), Fujian: 2570-2610 (0)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2440 (0), North Shandong: 2470 (0), Linyi: 2440-2460 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2280-2360 (130), Hebei: 2300-2420 (20)
Central China: Henan: 2360-2410 (10), Two Lakes: 2480-2620 (100)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2240-2280 (-10), Northern Shaanxi: 2160-2170 (-5), Inner Mongolia North Line: 2155-2200 (5), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2200 (60), Xinjiang: 1590-1730 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2200-2510 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2310-2550 (70)
Spot market analysis：
Today, methanol market prices continued to rise, futures rebounded, port spot market prices increased with the market, and China market continued to be strong and volatile. The bidding situation of bidding companies in the main producing areas was improving, mostly accompanied by premium transactions. The mentality of players in the market was improving, and the transaction atmosphere in the China market was positive. Specifically, the market price in the main producing area has been increased within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 2,155 -2200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan/ton for the low-end, 2200 yuan/ton for the southern line, and 60 yuan/ton for the low-end. The market supply pressure in the region is not great, which has formed a strong support for the mentality of the operators in the field. The bidding performance of companies in the main producing area is improving, and most of them are accompanied by premium transactions. Today, the starting price of Rongxin methanol is quoted at 2150 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal, with a quantity of 4000 tons. In the end, all transactions were completed at 2155 yuan/ton; Yulin Yankuang's starting price of methanol this week was quoted at 2160 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal, with a quantity of 4000 tons. In the end, all transactions were completed at 2170 yuan/ton. Market prices in Shandong, the consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2440 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2440- 2,460 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Futures markets have stopped falling and increased instead. On-site operators are more motivated to replenish stocks in the market, but freight prices are running high, and downstream receiving costs have increased, and some operators have certain resistance to high prices. The market quotation in North China is running strongly. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,300 - 2,330 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton at the low-end. There is not much supply pressure in the region. In addition, the futures market is strong and volatile, and manufacturers in the region have obvious signs of supporting prices; Shanxi's price today is 2,280 - 2,360 yuan/ton, with a low-end increase of 130 yuan/ton. As prices continue to rise in the previous period, some downstream pursuit willingness has weakened. In addition, the futures market has fallen within a narrow range, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish goods has decreased.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures fluctuated upward. The nearest end just needs an offer. Far-month arbitrage and exchange buying, a small amount of unilateral shipments, the basis weakened. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2570-2575, basis 01-28/-27; lower transaction: 2565-2570, basis 01-23/-21; upper transaction: 2585-2595, basis 01-10/-12; lower transaction: 2605-2620, basis 01+16/+20; lower transaction: 2620-2525, basis 01+40.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, supported by positive benefits from various parties, the quotations in the China market have been raised to varying degrees. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the main producing areas is not great. Manufacturers in the region have obvious signs of supporting prices. Downstream operators are more motivated to enter the market to replenish goods. In addition, methanol market prices continued to rise, futures rebounded, port spot market prices increased with the market, and most operators in the market had a positive mentality. On the whole, it is expected that the methanol market price will be strong and volatile in the short term. It is not ruled out that market quotations in some regions will still increase in a narrow range. However, in the later period, we need to pay attention to the profit and loss situation of the downstream market and the sentiment of replenishing the market.
