On November 25, the methanol market price index was 2,216.48, an increase of 31.64 from the previous working day and a month-on-month increase of 1.45%.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 22:
China CFR 300-305/ton, up 5/ton;
U.S. FOB 120-121 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 412-413 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2555-2565 (0), Zhejiang: 2630 (0), Anhui: 2510-2520 (0)
South China: Guangdong: 2540-2565 (-15), Fujian: 2570-2610 (0)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2440 (40), North Shandong: 2470 (30), Linyi: 2440-2460 (40)
North China: Shanxi: 2150-2325 (0), Hebei: 2280-2330 (30)
Central China: Henan: 2350-2360 (10), Two Lakes: 2380-2600 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2250-2270 (90), Northern Shaanxi: 2165-2170 (65), Inner Mongolia North Line: 2150-2200 (50), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2140 (0), Xinjiang: 1590-1730 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2200-2340 (20), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2240-2520 (0)
Spot market analysis：
The price trends in the methanol market were mixed today. Futures fell within a narrow range. Port spot market prices followed suit. Prices in the China market were consolidated at a high level supported by little supply pressure. Downstream players were still enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish goods, and the market transaction atmosphere was improving. At present, the market prices in the main producing areas have increased within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 2150- 2,200 yuan/ton, the low-end is increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2140 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged for the previous working day. Currently, the overall inventory pressure in the region is not great. The quotations of some manufacturers continue to push up, and the willingness to hold goods on the market is obvious. Today, the starting price of Yulin Yankuang this week is quoted at 2150 yuan/ton, with the quantity of 4000 tons. In the end, all transactions were completed at 2,165 - 2,170 yuan/ton; Rongxin's starting price was quoted at 2140 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal, with a quantity of 4000 tons, and in the end, all transactions were completed at 2150 yuan/ton. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2440 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2440- 2,460 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The futures market's highs have dropped, and some players in the market have gradually become wait-and-see and are concerned about tomorrow's market bidding situation. The market quotations in North China are sorted out at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,280 - 2,330 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton at the low end. At the beginning of the week, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among the operators in the market, and the follow-up of new orders in the market is limited. However, the inventory of manufacturers in the region is low, and the willingness to support prices is strong; Shanxi's quoted price today is 2,150 - 2,320 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. As prices continue to rise in the previous period, the willingness of some downstream to chase has weakened. Coupled with the narrow decline in futures, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish stocks has decreased.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures fell slightly. The spot just needed to be replenished, and the number of bids increased. Forward selling arbitrage shipments are the main focus, buying is active, the basis is stronger; exchanges continue. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot/11:2555-2565, basis 01-27/-20; 12:2570-2590, basis 01-11/-8; 12:2595-2615, basis 01+18/+23.
Market outlook forecast:From the perspective of the China market, with the smooth shipments of various manufacturers in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure in the main producing areas is currently not large. In addition, the 600,000-ton Xinao Phase I failed to stop on November 24, and the restart time is to be determined; Inner Mongolia Elco 200,000-ton equipment is being restarted and is expected to resume normal production tomorrow. The supply in the regional market continues to decrease. Under tight supply, it is expected that prices in the China market may continue to increase slightly in the short term. From the perspective of the port market, futures fell within a narrow range, and port spot market prices adjusted along with them. Some players in the market held a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook and were mainly in need of replenishment. In the short term, the port spot market range is expected to be mainly volatile. However, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the profit and loss situation of the downstream market and the sentiment of replenishment in the market with the increase in spot prices.
