China Urea Price Index:
According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 21 was 1,883.95, an increase of 0.45 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.10%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1801, the highest price is 1811, the lowest price is 1797, the settlement price is 1805, and the closing price is 1802. The closing price is 11% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.06% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 1797-1811; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 8; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 1750 lots today, and so far, it has held 159771 lots.
Today, urea futures prices generally maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. Due to the upward drive due to fundamental pressure, the pressure of high-level hedging is not obvious for the time being. However, in the short term, disk pricing is basically included in the logic of fundamental weakness. If there are no more new bad news, the risk of continuing to push down will be greater. In the future, there will be supply reductions and the supply-demand gap due to the gradual release of demand is expected to narrow. It is not recommended to be overly bearish in the short and medium term and wait for the bottom opportunity.
Spot market analysis:
Today, the overall urea market price in China is stable.Transactions at low-end prices in some areas are acceptable,Corporate orders accumulated, and individual quotations increased slightly after their quotations stabilized.The downstream mainly follows up cautiously on demand, and the market is deadlocked。
Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 1,870 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1,790 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been raised to 1,840 - 1,940 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 1,700 - 1,910 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 1960-2020 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1,880 - 1,920 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,850 - 2,150 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, after a round of low-price orders, companies 'pending orders have once again accumulated and increased. Recently, most of the quotations have been based on high prices, and the market has stabilized and increased slightly. In addition, the inventories of urea companies have continued to rise this week, and high inventories are still affecting prices. A major constraint on the upward trend. In terms of the market, the focus of current market negotiations has increased slightly. Most downstream purchases are on demand. Most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. New orders are generally followed up. Among them, transactions of small particles have slowed down and shipments of large particles have continued to improve. However, the overall on-site high production and weak demand pattern is still difficult to substantially improve. In terms of supply, inventory and Nissan continue to be high. Companies with future parking plans for pneumatic devices are currently parking a small amount, which will be started in the later period. According to the planned parking time of each company, there will be a round of decline in Nissan at the end of this month, and the rest will be implemented next month. Gradually realize. On the demand side, downstream industrial demand has increased slightly, and some reserve demand has purchased on dips, but the overall demand is still not as good as the supply side. Downstream factories and trade are relatively cautious in following up, purchasing is slow, and more on dips and a small amount of follow-up are mainly followed. The amount of follow-up after the price increase has decreased, so demand is relatively limited in the face of market boost.
On the whole, the current easing trend of supply and demand in China's urea market has not yet been reversed, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is expected that the urea market will operate in a weak and volatile manner in a short period of time, and prices may temporarily stabilize.
