On November 20, the methanol market price index was 2,163.54, an increase of 58.59 from yesterday and an increase of 2.78% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 19:
China CFR 297-300/ton, up 5/ton;
US FOB 117-118 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 394-395 euros/ton, up 3 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2530-2540 (10), Zhejiang: 2600-2610 (20), Anhui: 2450-2460 (0)
South China: Guangdong: 2510-2530 (20), Fujian: 2530-2580 (10)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2330-2350 (0), North Shandong: 2340-2350 (0), Linyi: 2350 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2150-2260 (0), Hebei: 2250-2320 (60)
Central China: Henan: 2300-2340 (20), Two Lakes: 2380-2550 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2160-2210 (0), northern Shaanxi: 2080-2105 (60), northern Inner Mongolia: 2085-2110 (85), southern Inner Mongolia: 2100 (0), Xinjiang: 1660-1725 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2180-2430 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2240-2500 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, methanol market prices continued to be consolidated at a high level, futures were strongly volatile, port spot quotes were adjusted with the market, and various manufacturers in China were operating at high levels supported by little inventory pressure, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was improving. At present, the market prices in the main producing areas continue to increase. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 2,085 - 2,110 yuan/ton, the low-end is increased by 85 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2100 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday. With the smooth shipment in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure of various manufacturers is not large. In addition, the futures market is relatively strong and volatile. Some players still have a certain upward sentiment. Downstream players are still enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish goods, and the transaction atmosphere in the region is relatively good. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,340 - 2,350 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Affected by auction premium transactions in peripheral areas, the mentality of operators in the region has been supported. Moreover, some manufacturers in southern Shandong have recently shipped smoothly recently, and low inventories have pushed up mentality. The market quotation in North China has been consolidated at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,250 - 2,320 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan/ton at the low end. Affected by the higher market prices in surrounding areas, the price in the region has been raised, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is still acceptable; Shanxi today's quotation is 2,150 - 2,260 yuan/ton, the low-end is stable, and the futures market is strong and volatile. The mentality of the industry is good. However, the follow-up demand in the downstream market is limited, which constrains the methanol market price from continuing to rise to a certain extent.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures were high and volatile. A small amount of stock is just needed. During the month, unilateral shipments were active on rallies, and the basis weakened; the basis for forward arbitrage and exchange negotiations was slightly weaker. The monthly price difference between far and near has widened. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2540, basis 01-28; transaction under 11:2550-2555, basis 01-15/-12; transaction under 12:2570-2580, basis 01+6/+8; transaction under 12:2580-2590, basis 01+20/+22.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, methanol futures have been strongly volatile, which has boosted the mentality of market operators to a certain extent. In addition, expectations for the storage of imported ships and cargo will be reduced in the later period. The mentality of market operators will be improved. The port spot market quotations will be adjusted along with it. The quotations in the China market have been consolidated at a high level supported by little inventory pressure. The transaction atmosphere in the regional market is relatively good, and manufacturers are relatively smooth. Some operators have a certain sentiment of pushing up. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol spot market prices will be consolidated at a high level. However, in the later period, we need to pay close attention to the follow-up of downstream demand after the rise in methanol prices, as well as crude oil and coal prices and the operation of on-site equipment.
