China Urea Price Index:
According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 20 was 1,883.50, an increase of 3.64 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.85%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1814, the highest price is 1817, the lowest price is 1791, the settlement price is 1803, and the closing price is 1799. The closing price is 44 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.22% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 1791-1817; The basis of the 01 contract in Shandong region 1; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 6033 lots today, and has held 161521 lots so far.
Today, urea futures prices fluctuated mainly downward. Given that the general logic of strong supply and weak demand for urea itself has not improved, the emotional rebound caused by industry meetings yesterday has also cooled down. However, the current overall macro sentiment in China's financial marketIt has recovered amid various news disturbances, and as the strength of the US dollar index slows down, overseas pressure has simultaneously eased, the overall China market seems to be stabilizing in stages and waiting for the arrival of a new policy window. Urea itself is also facing the gradual release of reserve demand in the future, and there is still an expectation that the gap between supply and demand will narrow. Although it is difficult to see a strong driving force for upward prices, it is still possible to gradually rise at the bottom of the game.
Spot market analysis:
Today, the price of urea in China has stabilized and increased slightly. The market has improved due to the influence of emotions. The market has risen slightly for a short period of time, and the low-end price in the market has rebounded slightly. However, the current situation of oversupply of goods in China is still difficult to improve, and the price increase is limited.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 1,870 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1,790 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been raised to 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 1,810 - 1,940 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1,700 - 1,910 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been raised to 1960-2020 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1,880 - 1,920 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,850 - 2,150 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, due to the poor transaction of new orders in mainstream areas in the past few days, high corporate inventories, and increasingly obvious sales pressure. Under the influence of continuous pressure on quotations, transactions of low-end goods on the market improved yesterday. With the support of orders, today's manufacturers 'quotations rebounded and were raised. In terms of the market, affected by the relevant policies of the urea industry conference on short storage of chemical fertilizers, current market transactions have improved, and low-price transactions in mainstream areas have improved significantly, boosting market sentiment. The market has fluctuated upwards, and the focus of trading has slightly increased. Today's price trend has stopped falling. Rebound slightly, and the atmosphere on the field has improved. On the supply side, Nissan is operating at a high level, and some preliminary maintenance equipment will be restored in the near future. Nissan continues to approach the high level of 190,000 tons, and the supply side is still under pressure for a short time. On the demand side, the demand side was driven by the obvious rise in yesterday's market, and the sentiment of spot transactions has improved significantly. Currently, it is follow-up on demand, and the overall sustainability is poor. The fundamentals are still weak, and the players are cautious.
On the whole, the current urea market in China has been boosted by news and sentiment, and the atmosphere in the market has improved slightly. However, the overall upward trend is limited and the fundamentals are still loose. It is expected that the urea market price will fluctuate within a narrow range in a short period of time, with deadlock dominated.
