China Urea Price Index:
According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 19 was 1,879.86, a decrease of 1.82 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.41%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1779, the highest price is 1828, the lowest price is 1775, the settlement price is 1803, and the closing price is 1816. The closing price is 48% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.71% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1775-1828; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is-26; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 14776 lots today, and so far, it has held 167551 lots.
Urea futures prices rebounded sharply today, mainly due to the impact of morning industry meetings, which increased the enthusiasm for purchasing reserves to a certain extent, and futures market sentiment strengthened accordingly. However, given that the fundamentals of urea itself have not improved significantly, the space above may still be difficult to open up. In the short term, we will wait and see whether actual demand growth can conform to the market expected path and whether it supports further strengthening of futures market sentiment.
Spot market analysis:
Today, the price of urea in China continues to stabilize and decline. The abundant supply and demand relationship has made the market lack of obvious positive factors to drive upward. The market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range around prices and sentiments, and the fundamentals of the market have not changed much in the short term.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 1,870 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 1,780 - 1,820 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 1,780 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 1,810 - 1,940 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been lowered to 1,700 - 1,910 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been lowered to 1,940 -2010 yuan/ton. Prices in northwest China have been lowered to 1,880 - 1,920 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have been lowered to 1,850 - 2,150 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, the transaction atmosphere of manufacturers in mainstream regions is still relatively light. The transaction situation of new orders is not good. Inventories are facing high levels. The suppression of the market is strong. Sales pressure is becoming increasingly obvious. The pressure on the market has dropped. The current quotation still has a narrow downward range. Prices are weak and falling. In terms of the market, the weak pattern of supply and demand in the market continues, the fundamentals tend to be loose, the trading sentiment of operators is poor, and the market continues to fluctuate at a low level. The current market prices continue to be stable and slightly downward. Some low-end prices are close to the low prices in the previous period. Markets in other regions are temporarily stable and wait and see, market activity is limited. On the supply side, equipment maintenance and restoration alternate, and Nissan is still fluctuating at a high level. Currently, Nissan maintains a fluctuation of around 188,000 tons. The industry's operating rate is still high, and the supply side is sufficient to continue. On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement on the downstream demand side, and demand follow-up has fallen short of expectations. Most operators are cautious and wait-and-see. Among them, agricultural demand is in the off-season, and current reserve purchases are mainly; the upward trend of compound fertilizer operating rates is slow; plate factories follow up a small amount and maintain bargain hunting, and the overall demand side has a limited number of transactions.
On the whole, the current supply and demand fundamentals of China's urea market continue to develop in a loose trend, and the overall market atmosphere continues to be weak. It is expected that urea market prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term.
