Analysis of caustic soda futures: On November 18, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2615, the highest price: 2631, the lowest price: 2586, the position: 57595, the settlement price: 2606, yesterday's settlement: 2617, the decline: 11, the closing price: 2590, the daily trading volume: 89669 lots, the accumulated capital: 716 million, and the capital inflow: 3.94 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: The trend of the caustic soda market in China is still slightly different today. Liquid caustic soda prices have dropped slightly in some regions, while some have increased slightly. The quotations of individual manufacturers for flake caustic soda prices have been lowered, and the focus of local transaction prices has followed suit. The market in the northwest region is relatively stable. There are certain differences in market price adjustment mentality. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% of ionic membrane alkali fell by 10-50 yuan/ton, and some increased by 20 yuan/ton, 48% of ionic membrane alkali fell by 100 yuan/ton, and 50% of ionic membrane alkali fell by 10 yuan/ton, the factory price of 99% of the alkali flakes was lowered by 200 yuan/ton, and the market transaction prices in individual regions also moved downward; the price range of alkali with other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, the liquid soda market was partially lowered, prices were mixed, the market transaction atmosphere was general, and the market operation in most regions was stable. The shipment situation of enterprises in some areas in Shandong, the main producing area, was poor, so the factory quotation was lowered, and the shipment prices of traders also moved downward; some regions in East China were affected by the previous price increase in Jiangsu, and some regions in Central China followed up; the downstream alumina delivery situation in some regions in Central China was relatively general, and the shipping pressure on enterprises increased, so the shipping price was lowered to promote transactions. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in most other regions, and no local variables have appeared that clearly guide the direction of the market. The market transaction atmosphere has mostly maintained its previous level, and the price range has temporarily shown a stable trend. Most operators have mainly waited and watched the market. A few manufacturers of upstream production companies have adjusted their quotations, but there are differences in the direction of price adjustment, with the upper and lower adjustment ranges from 10 to 70 yuan/ton; the factory quotations of manufacturers in most regions have not been significantly adjusted yet, and manufacturers are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the trend of the soda market has stabilized and moved slightly. At the beginning of the week, the ex-factory quotations of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong were lowered by 200 yuan/ton, and the transaction price range in the local market also moved down. Manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet announced new prices, and no new prices have been announced in the main producing areas. Under the circumstances of price, the market performance in most regions is relatively cautious, and most of them are mainly on the sidelines of the market. At the beginning of the week, the market trading atmosphere in most regions was moderate, and traders were not enthusiastic about entering the market.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The futures price of caustic soda SH2501 contract fluctuated downward. After going down at night, the market rebounded slightly and fluctuated. The morning futures price rose to the intraday high and then went down. At the end of the market rose in a narrow range. In the afternoon, the market showed a downward trend again. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2,586 to 2,631, with a spread of 45,01 contracts increasing positions by 1016 lots, and so far, 57595 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on November 18 was 3304.21, down 8.73, or 0.263%. China's caustic soda index fell.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:In the short term, the liquid soda market may maintain a regional and narrow consolidation. Most regional markets are lacking. Most devices on the supply side are operating stably and there is no obvious support for prices. The supply of device maintenance in some regions is tight, which has a certain impact on local and surrounding areas. There is some support for prices; downstream demand is relatively weak, and procurement enthusiasm is not high during the off-season of consumption. Both supply and demand sides in most regions are relatively weak and have no significant boost to the liquid soda market. It is expected that the liquid soda market will be consolidated in the short term or in a regional narrow range. The caustic soda market is still showing a downward trend this week. At present, most caustic soda units are operating stably, and the inventory of some manufacturers has increased. Manufacturers 'quotations may still have downward pressure. Moreover, the actual market transaction price is lower than the factory quotation. The mentality of operators in the market is obviously short. It is expected that the caustic soda market may remain weak in the short term.
Futures:The futures price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, was weak and volatile, and the market showed increased positions. As of the afternoon's close, the transaction situation of the market was as follows: 16.2% more open than 18.7% less open, and 19.5% less open than 19.9% more flat. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) continues to run in a horizontal direction, but the lower track shows signs of turning downward. The daily KD line shows a dead fork trend, and the dead fork trend of the MACD line has slightly expanded. Today's futures prices continue to fluctuate below the mid-track. There is some pressure on the upward trend of futures prices, but there is no obvious support below. In addition, there is no obvious guidance from the fundamentals and policies facing the market. Short-term caustic soda market may focus on the mid-track pressure level.
List of caustic soda positions:
