Analysis of PVC futures: On November 18, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5292, the highest price: 5309, the lowest price: 5251, the position: 925664, the settlement price: 5283, yesterday's settlement: 5314, down 31, the daily trading volume: 680983 lots, the deposited funds: 3.424 billion, and the capital outflow: 27.07 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market were weak at the beginning of the week, and the atmosphere was slightly bad. Comparison of valuations: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China fell by 20 yuan/ton, South China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, and Southwest China fell by 20 yuan/ton. Some of the quotations from upstream PVC producers remained stable, and some of them were lowered by 30-50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The operating atmosphere of the spot market was deviated. Futures were operating at a low level, and some one-stop price offers fell slightly in the spot market. The basis advantage was relatively obvious, and the basis in various regions was slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis offer for East China is 01 contract-(70-150-200), the contract for South China is 01 contract-(0-90), the contract for northern China is 01 contract-(360-400), and the contract for some goods is 01 contract-(610), and the contract for some goods is 01 contract-(200). The beginning of the week has just begun, and the two markets are not active. Although there are advantages in spot price offers, the enthusiasm for on-site inquiries is not good and transactions are light.
From a futures perspective: The night futures price of the PVC2501 contract has been in a small range of shock consolidation. The price fell slightly in the early session, and the low point was lower than the previous low in October. Then it rose slightly, but it was also consolidated at the low level. The afternoon futures price did not change much. The 2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 5,251 to 5,309, with a spread of 58. The 01 contract reduced its position by 7672 lots. As of now, 925664 lots have been held. The 2505 contract closed at 5615, with 153635 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures are performing slightly poorly, with the technical closing line being short. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) three-track opening is turning downward, and the trend of dead-fork between the daily level KD line and the MACD line has expanded., the market is showing a certain small reduction, but the main contract at the current time point is weakening. The basic coefficient has reversed the policy increase at the end of September and early October, and the low point has gradually approached the September low point. At present, there are no clear guidelines at the macro and news levels. Changes in the two markets based solely on fundamentals lack activity. It can be seen from the total volume of futures transactions that futures prices may still operate at low levels in the short term. Observe the changes in the low range of 5230-5350.
In terms of spot: Since the beginning of the week, the spot market has been operating weakly. Although the price basis offers certain advantages, it is currently difficult to see additional demand except for the part that is just needed. Even middlemen have no plans to hoard goods. In South China, even some expired goods have a large profit transfer behavior, and the current spot market is not performing well. Although the financial attributes are strong and are related to the trend of futures, the same decline is different from the rise. That is, when the futures market rebounds, the following increase in spot prices is insufficient, but the decline has a greater impact. It can be seen that the operation of the spot market continues to be under pressure at the current time point, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. Therefore, after removing the influencing factors at the policy and news exemption level, and returning to the fundamental market, the performance of the two markets will gradually weaken. Overall, in the short term, China's PVC spot market may continue to operate at a low level and under pressure.
