Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating slowly and steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,350 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton. Some soda plant units maintain a reduction in burden and reduction operation, and the supply side fluctuates within a narrow range; the downstream is still mainly in need of replenishment, and the intention to stock up is weak; the performance of the soda ash market has not yet emerged from a weak momentum, and the soda plants are still willing to support prices. Weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 18, was 1469 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1483 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.00% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1496 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1452 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1137654 lots, a month-on-month period of-17384 lots.
Today's soda ash futures prices are mainly weak and volatile. At present, the soda ash market still maintains a loose pattern of supply and demand. After the market weakened with the cooling of macro sentiment, it was also a midstream selling pressure problem. The overall market negative feedback still continued. However, the current market pricing is basically near the cost line of ammonia and soda companies. The market is still worried about the reduction of production by high-cost companies. However, after the current profit recovery of the downstream glass industry, the raw material acceptance capacity has been simultaneously repaired, and the cold repair rate has also slowed down. There is still support for the sustainability of demand for soda ash. In the short term, pressure on soda ash still exists. Before the emergence of new policy drivers, we will focus on whether various upstream and downstream dynamics will improve the phased supply and demand gap. Before that, we may maintain a weak trend and follow the fluctuations of the downstream and overall industry sectors.
market outlook
The early reduction plans of enterprises have resumed, and the market supply will consolidate at a high level; while the performance of downstream companies has been flat, and actual demand has not shown a significant improvement; it is expected that the trading atmosphere in the soda ash market will remain mainly stalemate in the short term, with limited price fluctuations.
