On November 15, the methanol market price index was 2,069.15, an increase of 2.07 from yesterday and an increase of 0.1% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 14:
China CFR 287-290 US $/ton, down 1 US $/ton;
US FOB 117-118 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 394-395 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2480-2495 (20), Zhejiang: 2540-2550 (10), Anhui: 2420-2430 (10)
South China: Guangdong: 2470-2490 (30), Fujian: 2500-2560 (50)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2310 (0), North Shandong: 2260-2280 (20), Linyi: 2345-2355 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2075-2220 (0), Hebei: 2190-2240 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2250-2260 (10), Two Lakes: 2330-2510 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2100-2130 (0), northern Shaanxi: 1985-2000 (0), northern Inner Mongolia: 1970-1990 (0), southern Inner Mongolia: 2000 (0), Xinjiang: 1660-1725 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2380 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2210-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, methanol futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and spot prices adjusted within a narrow range. At present, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers in the China market is not large. Some manufacturers in the region still have the sentiment to support prices, and downstream market transactions remain in demand. At present, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 1,970 -1990 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton. Among them, Northwest Energy's starting price for methanol today is quoted as 1990 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal, with a quantity of 2000 tons, and finally all transactions were completed at 1995 yuan/ton. Shaanxi Runzhong (Changwu) raised its price by 30 yuan/ton for the third time this week to 2130 yuan/ton. At present, the overall supply pressure in the regional market is not large, which provides certain support for the mentality of the operators, and transactions in the downstream market remain in demand. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Currently, the raw material inventories of some downstream companies maintain a high position, and the market transaction atmosphere has slowed down. The market quotations in North China are consolidated at a high level. Today's price in Hebei is 2,190 - 2,440 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday's level. Some manufacturers in the region are not willing to ship at low prices supported by low inventory pressure, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is limited; Shanxi Today's quotation is 2,075 - 2,220 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. At present, the overall supply in the region is not large, and the inventories of most manufacturers remain low. Supported by good supply, some manufacturers have a certain sentiment of supporting prices.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures rose. The stock just needs to be negotiated. Paper goods were mainly shipped on rallies, buying was cautious, and the basis weakened; unilateral low-price inquiries increased in the afternoon, and the basis continued to be weak. The deal was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2475-2480, basis 01-18; transaction in 11:2480-2485, basis 01-15/-13; transaction under 11:2485-2500, basis 01-2/+0; transaction under 12:2520-2525, basis 01+27/+31.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the futures price of methanol's main contract has fluctuated at a high level, which has supported the improvement of the mentality of the operators in the market to a certain extent. In addition, some manufacturers in the main production area have stopped equipment for maintenance, which has reduced the market supply in the region. In addition, the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the supply side has certain positive support. However, considering that the current downstream market demand is not performing well and there is no significant improvement in the short term, Weak demand is still the main factor restraining the rise in methanol spot market prices. At present, the methanol market is still in the stage of supply-demand game. It is expected that the methanol market price may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the later period, we need to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil, coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.
