Analysis of PVC futures: On November 15, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5310, the highest price: 5354, the lowest price: 5280, the position: 933336, the settlement price: 5314, yesterday's settlement: 5334, down 20, the daily trading volume: 844437 lots, the deposited capital: 3.451 billion, and the capital outflow: 102 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in the PVC market in China continued to decline slightly, and the atmosphere in the spot market was weak. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 10 yuan/ton, East China fell by 10-30 yuan/ton, South China fell by 30-50 yuan/ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China was stable. The quotations of upstream PVC production companies were partially lowered by 20-30 yuan/ton, including the simultaneous decline in off-site warehouse prices. However, on Friday, I have not heard of a better first-generation contract signing. The futures market weakened slightly, and the one-time offer of merchants in the spot market continued to fall, but the basis offer of on-site price has advantages. Among them, the basis offer of East China is 01 contract-(150-180), South China is 01 contract-(0-80), northern region is 01 contract-(360-400), some goods source is 01 contract-(620), and some goods source is 01 contract-(200). Overall, there are still small discussions on the actual order on Friday, and there are still some urgent requests for supply in the market. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and overall transactions are weak.
From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract rose slightly at the beginning, but fell late. The low prices in the early session started to narrow and then rose slightly, but the height was not good. The afternoon futures price returned to low levels, especially when it was once again operating below 5300 in the late session. The 2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 5,280 to 5,354. The spread was 74.01 contract reduced its position by 22402 lots. As of now, 933336 lots have been held. The 2505 contract closed at 5625, with 148701 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The low-end volatility of PVC2501 contract futures was refreshed during the week, with the lowest point of 5280 lower than the previous low in October. The whole day showed a long negative column with the upper shadow line, and the technical level showed that the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) The three-track opening expanded, and the daily level KD line and MACD line continued to show a dead fork trend, coinciding with a certain trend of reducing positions on Friday. At the close of noon, China's main futures contracts were mixed, and overall commodity sentiment weakened. At present, there is insufficient guidance from the macro and news levels, and the fundamentals of PVC are relatively weak, and the constraints of high inventory are relatively obvious. Overall, the fluctuations in PVC futures prices may be under certain pressure in the short term. Observe the performance of the low range of 5250-5380.
In terms of spot: The two markets are currently performing poorly during the Friday session, and judging from the current futures market, the technical level is slightly short. For the spot market, high inventories under the game of supply and demand have always limited the development of prices. As time goes by, demand still shows further weakening, while the supply is slightly abundant, and the starting load of PVC units is high. Real estate data continued to perform poorly after it was released. The National Bureau of Statistics: From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 8.6309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; of which, residential investment was 6.5644 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%. On the external side, prices in the international crude oil futures market continued to rise slightly, boosted by strong gasoline demand in the United States, which led to a sharp drop in gasoline inventories. However, the strengthening US dollar and bleak demand prospects limited the increase in oil prices. Overall, China's PVC spot market may be under pressure in the short term.
