Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating slowly and steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,150 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,150 - 1,250 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of soda ash companies remains at a high level, but downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and most of them mainly replenish goods at low prices and small quantities; the inventory of some manufacturers shows an increasing trend, shipping pressure is high, and spot market prices are weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 12, was 1480 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1497 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1513 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1457 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1204818 lots, a month-on-month period of-42216 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices mainly rebounded from a bottom, mainly due to the news that a large factory on the supply side reduced production in the afternoon. The general logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand for soda ash itself has not been broken, and the space above the price is strongly suppressed. However, at present, the risk of supply side disturbances is also increasing after prices are low, and short hedging behavior has also intensified market volatility. Although the expectation of continued contraction in demand cannot be falsified, there is still a certain scale of demand to support it before short-term downstream profits are eliminated again. Overall, the fundamental logic of soda ash itself is weak after the market temporarily enters a policy vacuum period, but it still needs to weaken downstream resonance to further open up the space below.
market outlook
Subsequent new soda ash units are planned to be launched, and the market supply will consolidate at a high level; downstream demand will perform poorly, and more low-priced and on-demand purchases will be made, resulting in a strong wait-and-see attitude; there is insufficient motivation for price recovery in the short term, and the market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state.
