Caustic soda: The price of liquid soda rose slightly regionally, and the futures price fluctuated upward

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On November 12, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2616, the highest price: 2660, the lowest price: 2594, the position: 62074, the settlement price: 2631, yesterday's settlement: 2626, the increase: 5, the closing price: 2648, the daily trading volume: 107788 lots, the accumulated funds: 789 million, and the outflow of funds: 39.44 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market continues to show a trend of regional fluctuations. Liquid caustic soda prices have increased in some regions and stabilized in most other regions. The quotations of individual manufacturers for flake caustic soda prices have been lowered, and the market transaction price range has not changed significantly for the time being. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% ionic membrane alkali locally increased by 20-70 yuan/ton, 49% ionic membrane alkali increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price range of alkali at other concentrations remained almost stable. The ex-factory price of 99% of flake soda has been lowered by 100 yuan/ton by some manufacturers in the northwest region. Most manufacturers have not yet announced new prices, and transaction prices in various regional markets have temporarily stabilized. Today, the liquid soda market is partially up. Prices in a few areas have increased by 20-70 yuan/ton. Some areas in East China are supported by the maintenance of local equipment. In addition, some early maintenance equipment has not yet been started. The local supply is slightly tight, which has formed a certain degree of support; some surrounding areas have been boosted by this, and prices have followed up; the shipment situation of enterprises in some areas is average, and the downstream is resistant to high prices, and the price center of gravity has shifted slightly. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in most other regions, and there have been no local factors that clearly guide the direction of the market. The market transaction atmosphere has mostly remained at the previous level, and the price range has temporarily shown a stable trend. Most operators have mainly waited and watched the market. Some manufacturers of upstream production companies in East China slightly raised their ex-factory quotations, while manufacturers in Shandong adjusted their quotations individually. However, there are differences in the direction of price adjustment, fluctuating between 20 and 30 yuan/ton. There has been no significant adjustment in the ex-factory quotations of manufacturers in other regions, and manufacturers are more cautious in price adjustment. The performance of the alkali market today is still relatively cautious. A few manufacturers in the northwest region have lowered their ex-factory quotations, and most manufacturers have not yet announced new prices. At present, the actual transaction prices in some source markets are slightly lower than the ex-factory quotations, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market has weakened. There has been no significant adjustment in market prices in various regions, and the market mentality has been cautious, focusing on wait-and-see markets.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 rose significantly. After the opening of the night session, the futures price fell rapidly, rebounded to the intraday low, and then operated in shock; the morning session showed an "M"-shaped trend, but rose slightly again in the late session. The afternoon futures price continued the upward trend in the late session of the morning and continued to rise, hitting a high in the day. After falling back slightly. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2,594 to 2,660, the spread of price difference of 66,01 contracts has been reduced by 4281 lots, and so far, 62074 lots have been held.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on November 12 was 3338.75, up 8.38, or 0.252%. China's caustic soda index rose.

Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:  

In terms of spot:At present, the liquid soda market is mostly stable, and prices in a few regions are mainly flexibly adjusted based on the supply and demand situation of the local market and the company's own conditions. From the perspective of liquid alkali supply and demand, there are still no obvious variable stimulus factors in most regions. The tight supply in some regions has given a small boost to prices in local and a few surrounding regions. The price guidance provided by the overall supply and demand level is insufficient, and demand is weak. It is difficult for the market to improve significantly. It is expected that the short-term liquid soda market may continue to adjust flexibly regionally. The trend of the flake alkali market continues to be weak, and traders are not enthusiastic about entering the market. Although there is still some support for prices in terms of supply ports and transportation efficiency, the excessive price rise in the early stage and poor non-aluminum downstream demand have affected prices. Certain suppression is expected, and the flake alkali market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Futures:The SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, rose somewhat within the day, but the overall market showed a trend of reducing positions. Both long and short parties had varying degrees of closing positions and leaving the market. As of the afternoon's closing market, the transaction situation was as follows: 17.8% more open than 16.1%, 21% empty flat compared with 21.1%. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) continues to be flat, the two lines of the daily KD line are intertwined, and the MACD line shows a dead fork trend. Today's futures prices rebounded slightly, but the overall situation still fluctuated near the mid-track. The futures price closed at the positive column with a slightly longer lower shadow line throughout the day, with some support below. In today's downward trend in the Wenhua Commodity Index, caustic soda products have emerged from a good upward trend and are among the top three leading the Wenhua Index. The short-term caustic soda market may continue to be sorted sideways near the middle rail.

List of caustic soda positions: