On November 11, the methanol market price index was 2,055.86, down 16.91 from the previous working day and 0.82% month-on-month decrease.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 8:
China CFR 296-300/ton, up 1/ton;
U.S. FOB 117-118 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 339-400 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2455-2485 (-25), Zhejiang: 2520-2530 (0), Anhui: 2400-2420 (-20),
South China: Guangdong: 2440-2460 (-10), Fujian: 2470-2520 (-20)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2310 (0), North Shandong: 2260-2270 (0), Linyi: 2360-2370 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2085-2200 (0), Hebei: 2190-2220 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2220-2240 (-30), Two Lakes: 2300-2460 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2080-2130 (0), northern Shaanxi: 1980 (-15), northern Inner Mongolia: 1950-1990 (-20), southern Inner Mongolia: 2000 (0), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2360 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2200-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the methanol market price range was adjusted, futures market highs fell back, and the spot quotation range was adjusted. With the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage and the support of little supply pressure, some manufacturers have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, but terminal downstream demand has recovered limited. Just when a transaction was needed, the market transaction atmosphere was light, and some operators held a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been reduced within a narrow range. Today's quotation on the northern line is around 1,950 - 1,990 yuan/ton, the low-end is down by 20 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton. The futures market is weak and volatile. The industry has a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The downstream terminal and traders are generally enthusiastic about replenishing goods. However, considering that the overall inventory pressure of various manufacturers is not large at present, market price fluctuations in the region are limited. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. With the smooth shipments of enterprises in the early stage, manufacturers with low warehouse support prices have not diminished their attitude towards supporting prices. The market quotation in North China has been consolidated at a high level. Today's price in Hebei is 2,190 - 2,220 yuan/ton, maintaining the previous working day. On-site operators have an obvious wait-and-see attitude, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is average; Shanxi's price today is 2,085 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the futures market is weak. Downstream operators are not enthusiastic enough to enter the market to replenish goods, so they are concerned about tomorrow's market auction.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The stock just needs to be negotiated. In recent months, a small number of unilateral shipments have been shipped, with buying orders at suitable prices and bidding prices, and the basis has been slightly stronger; for forward arbitrage trading, the basis has stabilized. The transaction was average. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2455, basis 01-15; transaction in 11: 2,465 - 2,485, basis 01-8/-5; transaction in 11: 2,480 - 2,490, basis 01+7/+12; transaction in 12: 2,510 -2520, basis 01+36.
Outlook: Recently, the overall construction of the China market has maintained a high position, and the overall supply performance of the market is relatively abundant. However, the overall inventory of various manufacturers in the main producing areas is relatively limited under the influence of smooth shipments in the early stage. Some manufacturers have a certain sentiment of supporting prices. However, the recovery of demand in the downstream market is relatively slow. In addition, some downstream stocks still have to be consumed, and it is unlikely that the demand side will increase significantly in the short term. At present, in the short term, China market will continue to experience oversupply. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to fluctuate in a range. In the later period, we will need to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.
