Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating slowly and steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton. Some soda ash units maintain reduced production, and supply fluctuates within a narrow range; downstream market demand continues to be poor, and companies are cautious in purchasing; the market transaction atmosphere remains flat, and the soda ash market is slightly depressed.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 11, was 1500 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1485 yuan/ton, an increase of-3.76% within the day. The intraday high was 1531 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1455 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1247032 lots, a month-on-month +32046 lots.
Soda ash futures prices weakened sharply today. In the short-term, the market has entered a policy vacuum period, and the proportion of fundamentals of commodity trading has increased. However, the current situation and expectation of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash itself still show no signs of marginal improvement. The overall market is still the logic of transactions to squeeze corporate profits for the purpose of removing production capacity. However, current market prices are already at the loss line of high-cost companies, and the market still cannot rule out the fear of some high-cost companies cutting production. In the short term, if the market supply-demand relationship is stable, it may still operate weak and wait for the next policy expectation node.
market outlook
Subsequent new soda ash units are planned to be launched, and the market supply will consolidate at a high level; downstream delivery of goods will be cautious, and more low-cost purchases will be made on demand. It is expected that the soda ash market will remain weak in the short term.
