Analysis of caustic soda futures: On November 11, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2655, the highest price: 2689, the lowest price: 2578, the position: 66355, the settlement price: 2626, yesterday's settlement: 2691, the increase: 65, the closing price: 2601, the daily trading volume: 131132 lots, the deposited capital: 828 million, and the capital outflow: 77.75 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market showed a regional downward trend. Liquid caustic soda prices have been lowered in North China, while other regions have been relatively stable. Factory quotations for flake caustic soda prices in Shandong have been lowered, and new prices have not yet been reported in Northwest China. The market mentality was cautious, and prices in most regions were temporarily stable. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% of ionic membrane alkali fell by 160-250 yuan/ton, 50% of ionic membrane alkali fell by 10-200 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 99% of flake alkali in Shandong was lowered by 200 yuan/ton, and the price range of alkali with other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, the liquid alkali market is moving downward. The price of high-concentration alkali has been lowered relatively significantly. The price range of low-concentration alkali has not changed significantly in most areas, and some have been lowered. The performance of the high-concentration alkali market was lukewarm, the downstream procurement situation was not ideal, and the company's shipment performance was poor, so the price was lowered; in some areas of low-concentration alkali, the price center of gravity was mixed due to the impact of transactions and corporate inventory conditions. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in most other regions, and there have been no obvious factors guiding the direction of the market in the local area. The market transaction atmosphere has mostly maintained its previous level, and the price range has temporarily shown a stable trend. Most operators are mainly watching and watching the market. The low inventory of upstream production companies in Shandong supported a slight increase in manufacturers 'quotations, with some companies mainly lowering their shipping prices to reduce inventories; some companies in East China slightly increased their shipping prices; there has been no significant adjustment in the ex-factory quotations of manufacturers in other regions, and manufacturers adjust prices. The mentality is cautious. Today, the flake alkali market was relatively cautious at the beginning of the week. The mainstream ex-factory price of flake alkali in Shandong has been significantly lowered by 200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price in Northwest China has not yet new prices. Most operators are mainly waiting and watching the market. Most of the flake caustic soda units are operating stably. Some units in Shandong have started half-load maintenance today, and the supply has decreased slightly. The downstream demand performance is relatively average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The overall decline in the caustic soda SH2501 contract was obvious. The night futures price rose slightly to an intraday high, and then fell back. The morning market was volatile, and the afternoon futures price fell to an intraday low and rebounded slightly. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 2578 to 2689, with a spread of 111.01 contracts reduced 4009 lots, and so far, 66355 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on November 11 was 3330.36, down 14.97, or 0.448%. China's caustic soda index fell.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:In the liquid soda market, most regional markets are currently operating in a narrow range. The market lacks obvious factors to guide the price trend. The maintenance of individual units this week has a small support for local prices. Most liquid soda units are operating stably, which is difficult to boost prices; Overall downstream demand remains tepid. Alumina companies just need to purchase. Non-aluminum downstream still have resistance to high-priced sources, and procurement enthusiasm is not high. Overall, it is expected that the short-term liquid soda market may stabilize slightly, with regional price adjustments dominated. In the caustic soda market, except for the maintenance of individual caustic soda units in Shandong and the maintenance of individual pre-maintenance units in Northwest China this week, most other units are operating stably and production is normal. The inventory of individual manufacturers is relatively low. In addition, transportation is still limited, which affects prices or still has some support; However, downstream demand has performed poorly and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. It is unlikely that traders and non-aluminum downstream demand will improve significantly in the short term. In addition, most merchants have a short mentality and are more bearish about the future. It is expected that the short-term alkali price may still There is a possibility of falling.
Futures:The futures price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, fell significantly during the day, and the market showed a reduction in position. The long and short parties closed their positions and left the market relatively obvious. As of the afternoon's close, the transaction situation on the market was as follows: 16.5% more than 19.2% less than 19.2%, and 21.5% less than 22.8%. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) is parallel, the two lines of the daily level KD line are intertwined, and the MACD line shows a dead fork trend. Today's futures price fell below the mid-track, and the low point was close to the lower track. The futures price closed at the negative cross star throughout the day, and the short-term caustic soda market may continue to organize sideways near the middle rail, waiting for new direction guidance.
List of caustic soda positions:
