On November 8, the methanol market price index was 2,072.77, an increase of 14.66 from yesterday and an increase of 0.71% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 7:
China CFR294 -300 USD/ton, flat;
US FOB 118-119 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 403-404 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2480-2495 (10), Zhejiang: 2520-2560 (-10), Anhui: 2420-2430 (0),
South China: Guangdong: 2450-2455 (0), Fujian: 2490-2540 (10)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2300-2310 (0), North Shandong: 2260-2270 (0), Linyi: 2350 (10)
North China: Shanxi: 2085-2200 (0), Hebei: 2190-2220 (10)
Central China: Henan: 2250-2260 (10), Two Lakes: 2300-2460 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2080-2130 (0), Northern Shaanxi: 1995 (0), Inner Mongolia North Line: 1970-1990 (20), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2000 (0), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2360 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2200-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the methanol market price increased within a narrow range, the futures market range fluctuated, and the port spot market price adjusted with the market. The overall transaction atmosphere in the China market was general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have increased within a narrow range. Today's price for the northern line is around 1,970 - 1,990 yuan/ton, the low-end is increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton. Among them,Yulin Yankuang today auctioned for 3000 tons of methanol, with a starting price of 1970 yuan/ton, and finally all transactions were sold at 1995 yuan/ton.。Rongxin bid for 3000 tons, with a starting price of 1960 yuan/ton, and finally all transactions were sold at 1970 yuan/ton. The overall transaction atmosphere in the regional market is relatively good. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, ranging from 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. With the smooth shipments of enterprises in the early stage, manufacturers with low warehouse support prices have not diminished their mentality of supporting prices. The market quotation in North China is being consolidated at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,190 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Recently, downstream demand has improved slightly, which supports the price of industry operators to remain high to a certain extent; the price in Shanxi is currently 2,085 - 2,200 yuan/ton. With the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage, it supports the price consolidation at a high level to a certain extent.
Port Market:Today, the morning futures range fluctuated. The stock just needs to be negotiated. Forward unilateral small amount of rallies shipped, arbitrage and exchange buying. The basis is weak and stable, and the monthly price difference between near and far has widened slightly. The transaction was average. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2480-2490, basis 01-23/-22; transaction in 11:2495-2510, basis 01-10/-6; transaction in 11:2505-2515, basis 01+5/+7; transaction in 12:2540, basis 01+33.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the overall construction of the market in China has maintained a high position, and the overall supply performance of the market is relatively abundant. Although some natural gas-to-methanol units on the site have been shut down one after another, the overall supply has not been significantly reduced. However, judging from the inventory situation of various manufacturers, with the smooth shipment in the early stage, there is not much pressure on the overall inventory of various manufacturers in the main producing areas at present, but the recovery speed of downstream market demand is relatively slow. In addition, some downstream stocks are still to be consumed, and it is difficult to increase demand significantly in the short term. At present, China's market is still in a situation of oversupply. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to fluctuate in a range. In the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.
