Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the soda ash market in China is temporarily stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton. Individual soda ash units reduced production, and overall output declined slightly; downstream market demand continued to be poor, and companies were cautious in purchasing; inventories of some companies continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals of the soda ash market did not change significantly.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 8, was 1547 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1514 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.05% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1578 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1510 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1214986 lots, a month-on-month period of-2678 lots.
Today's soda ash futures prices mainly fell due to the market's macro sentiment. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled last night, further freeing up room for China's interest rate adjustment. Coupled with the market's expectations for the implementation of today's important meeting in China, prices surged rapidly in early trading. However, market sentiment was immediately greatly frustrated by market rumors that the announcement of China's incremental policy today would fall short of expectations. In the short term, we will observe whether the market pricing is in line with the current fundamentals after the release of macro sentiment before making a decision.
market outlook
Subsequent new soda ash units are planned to be launched, and the market supply will consolidate at a high level; affected by sluggish demand, soda ash companies will have greater pressure to ship; with strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the soda ash market will remain weak in the short term.
