On November 6, the methanol market price index was 2,058.25, an increase of 0.87 from yesterday and an increase of 0.04% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 5:
China CFR 294-300/ton, up 1/ton;
US FOB 118-119 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 405-406 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2480-2485 (0), Zhejiang: 2520-2540 (10), Anhui: 2420-2430 (20),
South China: Guangdong: 2450-2460 (-10), Fujian: 2490-2530 (10)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2300-2310 (0), North Shandong: 2260-2270 (10), Linyi: 2350 (20)
North China: Shanxi: 2085-2190 (0), Hebei: 2180-2220 (20)
Central China: Henan: 2230-2460 (20), Two Lakes: 2300-2460 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2080-2130 (0), northern Shaanxi: 1965-1970 (0), northern Inner Mongolia: 1960-2000 (0), southern Inner Mongolia: 1950-1980 (0), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2360 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2200-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the price fluctuations in the methanol market were limited, and the futures market fell within a narrow range. The port spot market price adjusted with the market. The overall transaction in the China market was limited. With the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage and the support of supply pressure, some operators have a certain sentiment to support the price, but currently downstream transactions are only in demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. Today's price for the northern line is around 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and that for the southern line is 1,980 - 2,000 yuan/ton. With the smooth shipment in the early stage, there is not much pressure on the inventory of manufacturers in the region at present, but the downstream demand at the terminal is average, and the driving force for pushing up manufacturers 'quotations in the later period may be relatively limited. Market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, ranging from 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Terminal downstream operators have limited enthusiasm to replenish goods in the market, and they mainly maintain small orders that they need. The market quotation in North China has been consolidated at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei has been 2,180 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Recently, downstream demand has improved slightly, which has supported the company's quotation to remain high to a certain extent; the price in Shanxi today is 2,085 - 2,190 yuan/ton. With the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage, it supports the high price consolidation to a certain extent, but the overall transaction atmosphere has weakened compared with the previous period.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures fluctuated downward. In the morning, near-end paper goods shipped actively on rallies, with arbitrage and exchange buying mainly, and the basis weakened; in the afternoon, unilateral buying increased, and the basis stopped falling and stabilized. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot/11 upper: 2470-2490, basis 01-20/-18; 11 middle transaction: 2470-2500, basis 01-7/-4; 11 lower transaction: 2490-2515, basis 01+7/+10; 12 lower transaction: 2510-2545, basis 01+36/+40.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the overall transaction atmosphere in the China market has been relatively good. With the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage, the inventory of manufacturers in the main producing area has decreased compared with the previous stage. However, the number of on-site transportation vehicles has decreased compared with the previous stage, and freight prices have remained high. This has led to an increase in methanol transportation costs. Coupled with the limited recovery of downstream demand, operators have limited enthusiasm to enter the market to replenish goods. At present, manufacturers may still have the mentality of holding prices under the support of low stocks, but the terminal downstream demand is not performing well. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price range will mainly fluctuate, but in the later stage, attention will be paid to crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation status and downstream demand follow-up status.
