Caustic soda: Spot prices increased sporadically, and futures prices fell slightly and then fluctuated upwards

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On November 5, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2599, the highest price: 2616, the lowest price: 2550, the position: 70129, the settlement price: 2583, yesterday's settlement: 2616, down: 33, the closing price: 2603, the daily trading volume: 145858 lots, the deposited funds: 876 million, and the outflow of funds: 44.15 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market has stabilized and moved slightly. Prices in some regions of the liquid caustic soda market have increased, and most of them have remained stable. The mainstream ex-factory quotations in the northwest region of caustic soda have not yet new prices. Markets in various regions have acted cautiously and are waiting for new orders. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% of ionic membrane alkali individually increased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and individually dropped by 20 yuan/ton, 48% of ionic membrane alkali individually increased by 200 yuan/ton, and 99% of sheet alkali in individual regions. High-end prices were slightly lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and market price ranges in most regions were temporarily stable; price ranges for alkali at other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, individual prices in the liquid soda market have moved upwards. Prices in most regions have not adjusted significantly. The market trading atmosphere has not changed much, and the overall wait-and-see attitude is strong. The increase in individual transaction prices in Central China was mainly driven by the increase in the price of liquid alkali purchased by alumina, and the local price center of gravity shifted upwards as a whole. The supply of high-concentration alkali in some areas of South China is relatively tight, and prices have moved up slightly. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in most other regions, and there have been no obvious factors guiding the direction of the market in the local area. The market transaction atmosphere has mostly maintained its previous level, and the price range has temporarily shown a stable trend. Most operators are mainly watching and watching the market. The ex-factory quotations of upstream production companies in Central China have been increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory quotations of individual manufacturers in Shandong have been lowered by 10-30 yuan/ton. Manufacturers in other regions have stabilized prices and are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the ex-factory prices of individual manufacturers in the soda market remain at last week's level. Most manufacturers have not announced new prices yet. Markets in various regions are more cautious and mainly focus on wait-and-see markets. At present, the actual transaction prices of goods in some markets are lower than the ex-factory prices, and the trading atmosphere of high-priced goods has weakened.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 fell first and then rose. After the opening of the night session, the futures price quickly fell to an intraday low, then rebounded slightly and then fluctuated. During the day, the market fluctuated upward. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 2,550 to 2,616, with a price difference of 66.01 contracts reduced by 3789 lots, and so far, 70129 lots have been held.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on November 5 was 3371.66, up 9, or 0.268%. China's caustic soda index rose.

Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:  

In terms of spot:In the liquid caustic soda market, the supply side currently has no favorable factors to support most markets. The maintenance of individual units supports the relatively firm local prices; downstream alumina just needs support, and non-aluminum downstream conflicts with high-priced supplies. There is no obvious bright spot in the market performance. It is expected that prices in most regions in the short-term caustic soda market will remain stable. The mentality of operators is relatively cautious, and prices in some regions will be flexibly adjusted up and down. In the caustic soda market, the maintenance time of the caustic soda units of some mainstream manufacturers in Shandong has been postponed until early next week, which may form certain support for local prices; most manufacturers in the northwest region have installed stable operations, and some devices are still under maintenance, and the market supply has increased slightly. However, at present, manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and transportation conditions are still limited, which will form certain support for ex-factory prices; However, markets in most regions are relatively weak, with the actual transaction prices of some sources lower than the ex-factory quotations. Affected by poor non-aluminum downstream demand, traders 'shipments have been relatively weakened, and transaction prices lack significant boosting factors; the current market is negative and positive factors are intertwined, and it is expected that the short-term alkali market or wait-and-see mood will be heavier.

Futures:The low price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, hit a low since mid-October. The futures price declined significantly at night trading. However, there were loose expectations on the macro policy side, which had a strong boost to market sentiment. Today, bulk commodities are booming in large areas, driving the weak caustic soda market to rebound to a certain extent during the day to make up for the decline in night trading. The market was lightened, and the short positions were relatively active, and the long positions showed certain exit behavior. As of the afternoon's close trading situation, there were 17.9% more open than 20.4% less open, and 22.1% less open than 20.1% more open. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) has slightly expanded, the middle and lower tracks have turned downward, the daily KD line shows a dead fork trend, and the dead fork trend of the MACD line continues to expand. Today's low point hit the lower rail position. The all-day futures price closed at the positive column with a longer lower shadow line. The support below is relatively obvious. In the short term, we focus on the performance between the middle and lower rails.

List of caustic soda positions: