On November 1, the methanol market price index was 2,049.29, down 4.94 from yesterday and 0.24% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on October 31:
China CFR 290-296 US $/ton, up 2 US $/ton;
U.S. FOB 116-117 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon;
Southeast Asia is closed;
European FOB 403-404 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2480-2495 (50), Zhejiang: 2530-2540 (50), Anhui: 2400-2420 (0),
South China: Guangdong: 2445-2470 (5), Fujian: 2485-2540 (15)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2250 (0), North Shandong: 2250-2260 (0), Linyi: 2290-2305 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2080-2170 (0), Hebei: 2160-2210 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2190-2210 (30), Two Lakes: 2320-2480 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2130-2150 (0), northern Shaanxi: 1940-1940 (-10), northern Inner Mongolia: 1950-1955 (0), southern Inner Mongolia: 1950 (-50), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2200-2360 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2220-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the price of methanol in the market has not fluctuated much, the futures market fluctuated upward, and the spot price range fluctuated mainly. Recently, the overall supply in China market has performed well, and downstream market replenishment continues to be mainly in demand. Specifically speaking, some bidding companies in the main producing areas had a good transaction atmosphere today. Among them, the starting price of methanol in Yulin Yankuang this week was reported to be 1950 yuan/ton, with the quantity of 5000 tons, and finally all transactions were sold at 1,955 - 1,960 yuan/ton; Excelle's starting price today was 1940 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 3000 tons. In the end, all the bids were sold at 1,950 - 1,955 yuan/ton. Shenhua Baotou's auction volume was 500 tons today, and all the bids were sold at 1,925 - 1,930 yuan; Shenmu auctioned today, the quantity was 3500 tons, and 3300 tons were sold at the price of 1940 yuan/ton. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2250 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2250- 2,260 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. At present, the overall supply performance in the downstream market is sufficient, and the enthusiasm of operators to replenish stocks in the market is still good. The market quotation in North China is being consolidated at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,160 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Various manufacturers in the region are maintaining normal production. The downstream is mainly in need of replenishment, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited; the Shanxi region today's price is 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton. The low-end price is raised by 20 yuan/ton. The futures market is strong and volatile, and the downstream market is still enthusiastic about replenishing goods.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures fluctuated within a narrow range. In the morning, near-end shipments were active, while a small amount of long-term shipments were shipped on rallies. Most of the arbitrage and exchange negotiations were negotiated, and the basis weakened. Futures fell back in the afternoon, showing a slight stalemate. The overall transaction was average. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2480-2490, basis 01-15/-13; 11 upper transaction: 2485-2495, basis 01-10/-7; 11 middle transaction: 2490-2500, basis 01+1/+3; 11 lower transaction: 2510-2520, basis 01+15/+18; 12 lower transaction: 2530-2540, basis 01+42.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the overall construction of the market in China has maintained a high position, the overall supply in the market is relatively abundant, and the port market continues to accumulate. It is difficult to have a significant gap in the market supply side in the short term. However, the traditional downstream market demand has always remained in demand, and in the later period, as the weather turns cooler, some areas are affected by environmental protection policies and may have restrictions on starting construction. The weakness of demand in the short term is still the main factor dragging down the market price increase. In the short term, the regional trend of China market is regional, the mentality of on-site operators is different, and the demand in the terminal market continues to be sluggish. Small orders are just needed or transactions are normal. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to fluctuate in the range. In the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.
