Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 1
index
November 1June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index2020 beautyYuan/ton, compared withThe previous trading day fell by US$20/ton.
City and market analysis
futures market
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Periodic showers in Thailand have little impact on rubber tapping work. The northeast is in a period of vigorous production, and the south has increased month-on-month. The overall rubber output is still insufficient. The price of rubber has declined, but the decline is lower than that of the northeast.
China: The weather conditions in Yunnan's producing areas are good, and the rubber tapping work in the producing areas is progressing smoothly. However, cooling weather has begun to appear recently, which has affected the decline of dry content to a certain extent. The cutting stop period is approaching.
Affected by Typhoon Tanmei and cold air, precipitation disturbances have increased significantly in Hainan's production areas. Heavy rains occur in most areas, making rubber tapping operations difficult, and fresh glue output on the island is scarce.
Demand side:It is understood that the production schedule of tire companies is basically stable, and some all-steel tire companies have started to decline due to external factors. Currently, the equipment operation has returned to normal, and the equipment operation of semi-steel tire companies is at a high level. At the end of the month, foreign trade shipments are relatively concentrated, and inventories can be digested. In terms of the market, there is sufficient supply of goods between channels, weak terminal demand, and poor actual market shipment performance. All levels mainly digest inventory, and there is little willingness to continue to replenish stocks in the short term. They usually replenish stocks appropriately based on their own inventory situation.
Futures spot price list
market outlook
Recently, the main rubber contract has been volatile and difficult to change. As of now, the weather conditions in the upstream production areas have gradually improved, raw materials have begun to decline, and cost-side support has gradually become weak. In terms of downstream demand, for all-steel tires, the northern market is gradually entering the off-season. Under the pressure of current low inventory levels, weak demand, and continued high operating levels of raw materials, various companies may continue to flexibly adjust their production schedules, and the overall operating rate will increase. Limited space. The recent weakening of fundamentals has led to natural rubber maintaining signs of decline in the short term. Without any significant changes in fundamentals, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to maintain a volatile operation trend in the future.
