China Urea Price Index:
According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 31 was 1,896.95, a decrease of 0.91 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.06%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1820, the highest price is 1825, the lowest price is 1812, the settlement price is 1818, and the closing price is 1819. The closing price is 8 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.44% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 1812-1825; The basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is-19; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 681 lots today, and has held 175019 lots so far.
Today, urea futures prices are weak and mainly volatile. At present, the fundamentals of the urea market itself lack actual driving forces. The overall commodity market is also mainly waiting for the implementation of policies. The market game is more cautious before there is no definite news. In view of the weakening of urea's own fundamentals, it is relatively clear that the short-term market mainly operates around this logic. If the main line operates in shock, it waits for the implementation of subsequent policies.
Spot market analysis:
Today, the urea market price in China is mostly stable, with some minor adjustments. This week, urea prices continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the price adjustment range is limited. A few companies have loosened the market price slightly due to a small drop in equipment parking inventory.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 1,890 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 1,780 - 1,830 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 1,800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 1,870 - 1,960 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 1,750 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 1,950 - 2,030 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1,880 - 1,890 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,860 - 2,250 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, the quotations of urea plants in the main production and marketing area continue to remain stable. Manufacturers 'production and sales conditions are uneven, and their mentality continues to be strong. The inventories of China urea companies continue to rise. Some companies maintain a balance between production and sales. The pace of de-warehousing is still slow, and short-term shipment pressure still exists. In terms of the market, the market performance remains tepid, with a moderate increase in transactions in some low-end goods sources in mainstream areas, driving a narrow range of emotional shocks and consolidation, and the market continues to be deadlocked and volatile. In terms of supply, the number of urea maintenance units has increased slightly recently. This week, the utilization rate of urea production capacity dropped slightly compared with last week. The daily output dropped slightly and then fluctuated. In addition, many gas-head companies will stop their operations in November and December, and the supply side is expected to shrink. On the demand side, we have now entered the stage of winter fertilizer reserves, and the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed significantly. The willingness to follow up on downstream purchases is relatively slow, the enthusiasm for agricultural reserves is average, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has rebounded slightly, and most of them have to buy just in need.
Overall, the current performance of China's urea market is flat, and it is difficult to significantly improve the fundamentals of supply and demand. There is no other news affecting the market. It is expected that the urea market price range will fluctuate within a narrow range in a short period of time, and prices will mostly change with market transactions.
