Methanol: The current focus of the methanol period continues to move downward. The market wait-and-see sentiment is obvious

On October 30, the methanol market price index was 2,035.55, down 42.65 from yesterday, and a month-on-month decrease of 2.05%.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on October 29:

China CFR 288-294/ton, down 6/ton;

U.S. FOB 114-115 cents/gallon, up 3 cents/gallon;

Southeast Asia CFR 344-345 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton;

European FOB 403-404 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

East China: Taicang: 2425-2445 (-15), Zhejiang: 2480-2500 (-20), Anhui: 2420-2440 (0),

South China: Guangdong: 2405-2420 (5), Fujian: 2440-2500 (-20)

Shandong: South Shandong: 2230 (0), North Shandong: 2250-2270 (0), Linyi: 2300-2310 (0)

North China: Shanxi: 2080-2170 (20), Hebei: 2180-2230 (0)

Central China: Henan: 2150-2175 (-30), Two Lakes: 2320-2480 (0)

Northwest: Guanzhong: 2130-2150 (0), northern Shaanxi: 1950 (-60), northern Inner Mongolia: 1930-1970 (-65), southern Inner Mongolia: 2000 (-20), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (-20)

Southwest: Yungui: 2200-2360 (70), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2220-2450 (0)

Spot market analysis：

Today, the methanol market price is operating weak, the futures market continues to decline, and the port spot market quotes are lowered with the market. The overall transaction atmosphere in the region is general. Most players in the China market are more obvious. Today, the situation of some bidding companies in the market is general, and some manufacturers have over-selling operations. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. The price for the southern line of Inner Mongolia is around 2000 yuan/ton, the price for the northern line of Inner Mongolia is around 1,930 - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the low-end is lowered by 65 yuan/ton. The starting price of Yulin Yankuang is quoted as 1950 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, with the quantity being 8000 tons, and most of the transactions were sold at this price; the starting price of Rongxin methanol is quoted as 1950 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, and all 8000 tons are sold; Shenmu's starting price was quoted as 1990 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, and all the 6000 tons of total cash withdrawal were auctioned; Shenhua Bayannur bid for 2400 tons, and finally all the transactions were sold at 1,950 - 1,960 yuan/ton; Shenhua Xilaifeng was auctioned at 1910 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, and part of the transaction was sold at 3500 tons. Methanol futures continued to fall, which was negative for the market atmosphere, and downstream and traders were not enthusiastic about entering the market. Market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Futures fluctuated downward, and the market atmosphere was cautious. The market quotations in North China are sorted out at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,180 - 2,230 yuan/ton. The performance of downstream demand in the region is average. Some operators have no resistance to holding current high prices, and their enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market is average; the price in Shanxi today is 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton at the low-end. There is limited follow-up of new orders on the market, and the volume of market transactions is average.

Port Market:Today, methanol futures fell in the morning and consolidated in the afternoon. Spot just needs to be purchased. In the long term, unilateral receipt of goods on bargain hunting, arbitrage and exchange shipments, and the basis has stabilized. The overall transaction throughout the day was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2430-2445, basis 01-8/-6; 11 upper transaction: 2430-2445, basis 01-1/+0; 11 middle transaction: 2445-2455, basis 01+9/+10; 11 lower transaction: 2450-2470, basis 01+18/+20; 12 lower transaction: 2480-2485, basis 01+45.

Methanol market freight rate on October 30

Market outlook forecast:As the futures market continues to fall, the focus of transactions in the China market continues to be lowered, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market has weakened. Under the influence of the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, players on the market are not enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish goods. Due to the smooth shipments of various manufacturers in the early stage and the support of little supply pressure, they have a certain sentiment of supporting prices. At present, the fundamental performance of methanol itself is still poor. Just before the transaction is completed, it is expected that the market price of methanol in China may continue to be weak in the short term. However, in the later period, we need to pay close attention to crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.