Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 30, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2652, the highest price: 2699, the lowest price: 2627, the position: 74381, the settlement price: 2661, yesterday's settlement: 2632, the increase: 29, the closing price: 2669, the daily trading volume: 286166 lots, the deposited capital: 953 million, and the capital inflow: 53.11 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market continues to fluctuate slightly, with certain differences in price adjustments. A few regions in the liquid caustic soda market have adjusted, and prices are mixed; some manufacturers have raised the prices of new orders in the caustic soda market, and the new prices of a few manufacturers have not yet been announced. The focus of transaction prices in most regional markets has not yet been significantly adjusted. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% ionic membrane alkali has dropped by a minority of 10-40 yuan/ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali has been increased by a minority of 200 yuan/ton (discounted to 100 yuan), and 99% of mainstream alkali manufacturers in northwest China have increased their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton this week. The market price range in most regions has temporarily stabilized; the price range of alkali with other concentrations has remained almost stable. Today, the liquid soda market showed slight fluctuations. The market transaction atmosphere remained at the previous level. Prices in some regions were flexibly adjusted. Most markets were operating stably, and price adjustments were relatively cautious. The price reduction in individual regions is mainly due to the recent resumption of operation of local caustic soda units and the expectation of an increase in supply. However, the recent performance of local downstream and traders in receiving goods has been average, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, which is negative for local prices. Therefore, the price reduction is mainly concentrated. The prices of high-concentration alkali in some regions were affected by the increase in surrounding prices in the early period, and prices were adjusted lagging behind. In most other regions, there have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides. The downstream receiving situation is average. The market trading atmosphere has mostly remained at the previous level. Therefore, the price range has not been significantly adjusted for the time being. Most operators are mainly cautious and wait and see the market. Most upstream production companies stabilize prices and wait and see, and are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the ex-factory quotations of some mainstream manufacturers in the caustic soda market have increased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and a few manufacturers have not yet made new prices. Markets in most regions have a strong wait-and-see attitude. This week's increase in the price of new orders did not drive market enthusiasm for transactions. The focus of transaction prices has not been significantly adjusted, and the mentality is relatively cautious.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The caustic soda SH2501 contract continued to rise slightly. The night market was operating in turmoil, and the futures price rose after the opening of the morning trading session. After reaching the intraday high, the market rebounded slightly again in the afternoon. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 2,627 to 2,699, with a spread of 72,01 contracts increasing positions by 3455 lots, and so far, 74381 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on October 30 was 3358.47, up 0.77, or 0.023%. China's caustic soda index rose.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:The liquid soda market, the liquid soda market may maintain a flexible price adjustment trend in the short term, and the overall market will show regional changes. Early maintenance equipment in some areas has been restored one after another. The increase in supply has combined with the poor enthusiasm of non-aluminum downstream and traders to receive goods. The contradiction between supply and demand has gradually intensified, which has negative impact on local prices and has a tendency to revise prices. However, some areas have later maintenance plans for installations, which may form a small support for prices, supporting the relatively strong local quotations. Overall, it is expected that the short-term liquid soda market will continue to operate in a narrow range. In the alkali market, most manufacturers 'new orders showed an upward trend this week, but the increase in manufacturers' quotations did not drive the center of gravity of market transaction prices to rise, and the market trading atmosphere did not show significant improvement, and most of them maintained their previous level of operation. The prices of new orders from a few manufacturers have not yet been announced, and most manufacturers are still cautious. It is expected that the wait-and-see sentiment in the alkali market may increase in the short term.
Futures:The futures price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, continued to rise slightly, with the futures price high approaching the 2700 mark. Zhengshang Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the transaction fee standards for some caustic soda futures contracts: Starting from the night trading on the night of October 30, 2024, the transaction fee standards for caustic soda futures 2412 and 2501 contracts and intraday trading fee standards have been adjusted to 2/10,000 of the transaction amount (previously 1/10,000). The adjustment of handling fees has promoted an increase in market trading, and bulls continue to enter the market significantly. As of the afternoon's close trading situation, there are 23.2% more open than 20.9% empty open, and 21.2% empty flat compared with 22.3%. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) continues to narrow, the dead-fork trend of the KD line at the daily level narrows, and the two lines of the MACD line continue to intersect and twist. Futures prices continue to fluctuate in the mid-orbit, and futures prices throughout the day closed at the positive star. The short-term caustic soda market may continue to show a turbulent consolidation trend.
List of caustic soda positions:
