[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (October 2024)

dry rubber

this monthThe spot market price of natural rubber in China began to show a downward trend. October coincides with the National Day holiday. Stimulated by macro news before the National Day, natural rubber showed a significant upward trend at the end of September. However, after the holiday ended, the market's bullish sentiment weakened. Rubber futures began to open high and go low when some profits were closed and positions were added in distant months. During the holidays, overseas markets were affected by the news of the postponement of the EU Zero Deforestation Act. Factory trading sentiment weakened, and external market quotations began to decline. After the holidays ended, the macro atmosphere of commodities weakened, capital sentiment cooled, futures generally fell, and rubber futures also couldn't escape the impact, and even fell to a limit at the close of October 10. Following the limit, rubber started a road to shock.

natural latex

this monthChina's natural latex market remained volatile after falling back at a high level. During the National Day holiday, overseas markets were affected by the news of the postponement of the EUDR Act, and the external market market fell. The offers of overseas processing factories were lowered accordingly, which dealt a blow to the bullish sentiment in the market. In addition, the downward transmission of high prices in the industrial chain is slow, and the high-price market transactions are poor, further dragging down market prices. As the weather improves in Southeast Asian producing areas, the supply side has gradually transitioned to the peak season, and the expectation of increasing raw materials has strengthened. Coupled with the impact of poor demand for concentrated milk and tobacco tablets, Thailand's raw materials and cost-side market has shown a significant downward trend. Market bearish sentiment has spread. Products companies have an obvious "don't buy down" mentality, and their enthusiasm for spot purchases is sluggish, further bearish on the natural latex market, but short-term futures market fluctuates at high levels.

Market outlook forecast:

In January and November, the supply of raw materials in production areas at home and abroad is expected to increase significantly, and cost support is weak;

2. It is expected that the tire operating rate will improve in November;

March. In November, the Tianjiao Social Library continued to be expected to continue to be removed.