Methanol: Futures market highs fall back and the spot market continues to rise

On October 29, the methanol market price index was 2,078.2, an increase of 30.19 from yesterday and an increase of 1.47% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on October 28:

China CFR 294-299/ton, up 6/ton;

US FOB 111-112 cents/gallon, flat;

Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;

European FOB 408-409 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

Today's price summary:

East China: Taicang: 2440-2475 (5), Zhejiang: 2500-2520 (-30), Anhui: 2420-2440 (60),

South China: Guangdong: 2410-2420 (-30), Fujian: 2460-2530 (-30)

Shandong: South Shandong: 2310-2320 (0), North Shandong: 2250-2270 (-30), Linyi: 2340-2350 (0)

North China: Shanxi: 2080-2170 (20), Hebei: 2180-2230 (0)

Central China: Henan: 2180-2200 (0), Two Lakes: 2320-2480 (70)

Northwest: Guanzhong: 2130-2150 (0), Northern Shaanxi: 2010 (0), Inner Mongolia North Line: 1995-2020 (0), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2020 (20), Xinjiang: 1720-1775 (0)

Southwest: Yungui: 2130-2280 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2220-2450 (120)

Spot market analysis：

Today, the methanol market has mixed trends, with futures falling back from high levels and spot prices pushing up slightly. Affected by the downward revision of international crude oil prices, futures stopped rising and fell back, which to a certain extent was negative for the mentality of market players. However, the prices in the China market pushed up slightly, supported by low inventory pressure. Specifically speaking, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. The price of the southern line of Inner Mongolia is around 2020 yuan/ton, and the price of the northern line of Inner Mongolia is around 1995-2020 yuan/ton. The futures market has dropped from the high level, and the enthusiasm of market operators to enter the market to replenish goods has weakened. The conversion unit price in some areas has dropped slightly. However, with the smooth shipment in the early stage, there is little pressure on the inventory of manufacturers in the region, and the market price has been consolidated at a high level. Market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton in northern Shandong, with a reduction of 30 yuan/ton at the low-end. Currently, inventories in the downstream market remain at a high level, and traders are mainly in need of replenishment on bargain hunting, and today's futures market is weakening, so the market wait-and-see attitude is more obvious. The market quotation in North China is arranged at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,180 - 2,230 yuan/ton. The inventory level of manufacturers in the region is not high. Downstream factories purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is still acceptable; Shanxi is quoted today at 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton, with a low-end increase of 20 yuan/ton. Manufacturers in the region are relatively smooth, and most auctions are at a premium. Manufacturers are obviously willing to bid.

Port Market:Today, methanol futures range fluctuated. There were few spot discussions and limited transactions. A small number of paper goods are received on dips, and arbitrage and exchange negotiations are the main focus. The basis is weak and stabilizes, and the exchange idea continues. The transaction was average. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot and 10 transactions: 2440-2475, basis 01-7/-6; 11 transactions: 2450-2470, basis 01-2/+0; 11 transactions: 2465-2490, basis 01+18/+20.

Methanol market freight rate on October 29

Unit: yuan/ton

Market outlook forecast:The futures price of methanol's main contract fell back at a high level, which to a certain extent was negative for the mentality of on-site operators. The enthusiasm of some downstream and traders to enter the market for replenishment has weakened. However, due to the smooth shipments of various manufacturers in the early stage and the support of low supply pressure, there is a certain amount of support for prices, and the focus of transactions in some regions continues to push up slightly. In terms of the port market, there have been changes in equipment in some international regions recently. Iran's Sabalan methanol plant with an annual output of 1.65 million tons was unscheduled to stop on October 28 due to raw material problems, and the recovery time is to be determined; Iran's ZPC1 #and 2 #each have an annual output of 1.65 million tons of methanol plants. The burden on the 10,000-ton methanol plant dropped unexpectedly to around 50% due to raw material problems around October 27. In the later period, the arrival of methanol imported cargo may decrease slightly. On the whole, it is expected that the methanol market price will adjust within a narrow range in the short term, and the room for further growth may be relatively limited. However, in the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.