PVC: Futures prices rise and fall day by day, rising and falling frequently alternate, and spot prices weaken and fall slightly

Analysis of PVC futures: On October 29, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5558, the highest price: 5571, the lowest price: 5438, the position: 866884, the settlement price: 5500, yesterday's settlement: 5556, down 56, the daily trading volume: 1060981 lots, the deposited funds: 3.307 billion, and the capital outflow: 14.71 million.

Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the PVC market in China fell slightly, with the main trend alternating with one rise and one fall. Comparison of valuation: North China dropped by 50 yuan/ton, East China dropped by 40 yuan/ton, South China dropped by 40 yuan/ton, Northeast China dropped by 50 yuan/ton, Central China dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and Southwest China was stable. Before the upstream PVC production companies generally rose, some companies experienced a decline, with a decline of basically 30-50 yuan/ton. The same was true for the spot market. It rose across the board yesterday and changed to a downward trend today. Futures market futures prices retreated downward. The spot market price weakened slightly, the spot price and the spot price coexisted, and the basis was slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis was offered in East China 01 Contract-(80-150-200), contract 01 in South China-(0-70), contract 01 in northern China-(400-420), contract 01 for some sources of goods in Southwest China-(520), and contract 01 for some high-end delivery-(200). Spot market prices are adjusted frequently, but there is no major fluctuation in spot transactions. Downstream orders are pending at low levels and point-price transactions are the main ones.

From a futures perspective: The PVC2501 contract price began to fall at the opening of night trading, and the intraday price weakened. Late prices began to decline further in early trading. The downward trend of iterative night futures prices was relatively obvious, and the low afternoon futures prices were consolidated in a narrow range. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5438 to 5571, with a spread of 133. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 14598 lots. As of now, 866884 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5765, with 128668 lots held.

PVC market outlook forecast:

Futures: As the title says, the futures price of the PVC2501 contract moves, rising and falling day by day, with frequent fluctuations in ups and downs. On the basis of yesterday's higher futures price, today's market trend did not continue yesterday's rally, and even the high price did not last for too long. Today, it began to fall and weaken. The fall below the middle track showed a negative column. The market showed a certain increase in positions. According to the transaction volume, it was 24.8% short and 23.4% more. There was a certain set of insurance policies for the high price on the market. And also enter certain speculative short orders. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) has the intention of turning downward. In yesterday's forecast, we gave that the upper high range would start to go downward before reaching it. In the short term, the movement of futures prices may show a horizontal trend near the middle track. 5400-5500.

In terms of spot: Frequent adjustments in prices in the two markets are currently in the spot market. First, the range of futures prices is greater than the adjustment range in the spot market. Today, the spot market price declined slightly. However, in terms of trading, there is insufficient downstream feedback on the rise and fall, excluding the just-needed portion. There has been no significant trading changes, and production companies have also flexibly adjusted ex-factory prices based on their own inventories. The rise in prices in the two markets yesterday came from certain meetings and policy expectations. However, today's market downturn and the weakening of the spot market can also be seen that the current financial attributes are strong. Under the circumstances of repeated expectations, hedging at high prices is relatively appropriate. From the perspective of supply and demand, with the end of maintenance, the start of PVC plants has increased slightly, and the demand has not changed much. Calcium carbide and monomers have temporarily stabilized. In the short term, the PVC spot market will remain mainly consolidated and volatile.