Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 29, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2641, the highest price: 2668, the lowest price: 2601, the position: 70926, the settlement price: 2632, yesterday's settlement: 2612, the increase: 20, the closing price: 2643, the daily trading volume: 244547 lots, the deposited capital: 900 million, and the capital outflow: 14.94 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market fluctuates within a narrow range. Prices in various regions are consolidating and operating at high levels. Liquid caustic soda prices have been partially adjusted. There are regional differences in price adjustment mentality. The caustic soda market has temporarily maintained a stable trend. The price of new orders from manufacturers has not been announced yet, and the focus of transaction prices in various regions has not changed significantly. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% of ionic membrane alkali dropped by a few yuan/ton, and some increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. 99% of mainstream alkali manufacturers in northwest China have not yet announced the price of new orders this week. Some manufacturers quoted prices increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the market price range has temporarily remained stable; the price range of alkali with other concentrations has almost remained stable. Today, prices in a few regions in the liquid soda market are mixed, prices in most regions are operating stably, and the market mentality is biased towards cautious wait-and-see. The price of liquid soda in Shandong, the main producing area, has been slightly reduced. Production of local pre-maintenance equipment has resumed, and the supply of goods has increased. However, the downstream receipt of non-aluminum goods is generally normal, which conflicts with high-priced supplies. When companies are under greater shipping pressure, the shipping price has been mainly lowered. The price of liquid soda in some regions of the northwest increased slightly, mainly due to the relatively strong local soda prices, which provided certain support for the price of liquid soda. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in most other regions. The downstream non-aluminum downstream receiving situation has performed generally. The market trading atmosphere has mostly remained at the previous level. Therefore, there has been no significant adjustment in the price range for the time being. Most operators are mainly cautious and wait and see the market. Some manufacturers of upstream production enterprises in Shandong have lowered their ex-factory quotations by 20-40 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers in other regions have stabilized prices and waited and are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the alkali market is temporarily stable and on the sidelines, and the focus of transaction prices in various regional markets has not changed significantly. The quotations of individual manufacturers in the northwest region have been raised by 100 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory quotations of mainstream manufacturers have not yet been announced. A small number of flake caustic soda units are still under maintenance, and most of them are operating normally; transportation is still limited and delivery efficiency is not high. Downstream and traders are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 fell first and then rose. The market went down at night and fluctuated upwards during the day to make up for part of the decline. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2601 to 2668, the spread of 67.01 contracts has been reduced by 1069 lots, and so far, 70926 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on October 29 was 3357.7, up 6.16, or 0.184%. China's caustic soda index rose.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:In the liquid soda market, the current liquid soda price in the main producing areas has shown a downward trend. On the one hand, production of pre-maintenance equipment has been resumed one after another, and supply is expected to increase in the later period. If individual equipment is expected to be overhauled in November, there may be some small support for local prices. However, equipment in most areas is operating stably and lacks sufficient support for prices; On the other hand, after prices rose to a high level, the profits of non-aluminum downstream industries decreased significantly, and there was resistance to high-priced sources of goods, and poor enthusiasm for receiving goods, which caused a certain drag on the price of caustic soda. It is expected that short-term liquid soda prices will be consolidated at a regional high level. In the flake alkali market, manufacturers 'quotations in the flake alkali market are still relatively firm despite little inventory pressure, while the market performance is slightly weak, and the market transaction atmosphere has weakened. At present, the transportation and supply sides still have some support for the price of flake alkali. In the short term, flake alkali prices may operate relatively firmly, and there will be no obvious downward trend for the time being. In the medium term, with the restoration of maintenance equipment, there are expectations for increased supply in the later period. With the arrival of the off-season demand in November, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to receive goods will be correspondingly weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere may continue to weaken, which will present a certain negative for the market.
Futures:The SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, continues to fluctuate around the mid-track, mainly reducing positions on the market, and the bulls have shown a certain amount of proactive exit. As of the afternoon's close, the transaction situation on the market was as follows: 20.7% more open than 21.7% empty open., 21.3% empty flat compared with 23.2%. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) continues to narrow, the daily KD line shows a dead fork trend, and the two lines of the MACD line intersect. Judging from the overall commodity market today, despite the relatively weak Wenhua Index, caustic soda has seen a good market among the few rising products, and it still has certain positive guidance in the face of the market. At present, the three tracks of the Bollinger Band are continuing to narrow, and the short-term caustic soda plate may continue to be organized horizontally on the middle track, waiting for guidance in a new direction.
List of caustic soda positions:
