Caustic soda: Shandong flake soda factory's quotation increased, liquid soda prices partially fell, and futures prices fluctuated upward

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 28, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2596, the highest price: 2650, the lowest price: 2557, the position: 71997, the settlement price: 2612, yesterday's settlement: 2619, the decline: 7, the closing price: 2647, the daily trading volume: 247720 lots, the deposited capital: 915 million, and the capital outflow: 19.39 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, the trend of the caustic soda market in China is slightly different. The price of liquid caustic soda has dropped slightly in a few regions, and the markets in most regions have remained stable. The ex-factory price of flake caustic soda in Shandong has been raised, and the new price has not yet been reported in the northwest region. There are differences in the price adjustment mentality of the two caustic soda markets. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, a minority of 32% ionic membrane alkali fell by 10-70 yuan/ton, the Shandong factory price of 99% flake alkali was increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the transaction prices in individual markets increased by 100 yuan/ton; the price range of alkali with other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, the liquid soda market trend declined slightly, prices in some regions fell slightly, and market prices in most regions remained stable. First of all, production of pre-maintenance equipment has resumed in some areas, and the supply side has shown an increase. In addition, the receiving situation of non-aluminum downstream and traders has performed generally. The shipping pressure of enterprises has increased. Local manufacturers have lowered their factory quotations, and the market transaction price has followed suit. Falling back operation. There have been no significant changes in supply and demand in other regions, and the market trading atmosphere has mostly remained at the previous level. Therefore, the price range has not been significantly adjusted for the time being. Most operators are mainly cautious and wait and see the market. Some manufacturers of upstream production enterprises in North China have lowered their ex-factory quotations by 20-50 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers in other regions have stabilized prices and waited and are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the soda market is stable and rising. At the beginning of the week, the ex-factory quotations of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong were raised by 150 yuan/ton to 3850 yuan/ton. There was no significant adjustment in the focus of transaction prices in the local market; manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet announced the price of new orders, and most markets are operating relatively stable, waiting for new orders from manufacturers in the northwest; the transaction situation in some regions is still good, supporting the shift of local price focus. Some units are still under maintenance, the pressure on the supply of caustic flakes is still not large, and transportation in some areas is still limited.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The futures price of the caustic soda SH2501 contract rose. After the opening of the night session, there was a slight dip in the market, and then fluctuated upward; the futures price during the day fluctuated slightly again. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2,557 to 2,650, and the price difference of 93,01 contracts has been reduced by 2855 lots. As of now, 71997 lots have been held.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on October 28 was 3351.54, down 18.32, or 0.544%. China's caustic soda index fell.

Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:

In terms of spot:On the supply side, from the perspective of liquid alkali, the current time point is at the end of October, and the preliminary maintenance equipment will be restored one after another at the end of October and November. The regions involved include North China, Central China, East China, Northwest China and other regions, and the supply of liquid alkali will gradually recover., the supply of liquid alkali will increase in the later period, which will have a certain negative impact on prices in the regions involved. From the perspective of flake alkali, the pre-sales situation of some manufacturers is still acceptable, and the equipment of some manufacturers is still under maintenance. In addition, the output of some mainstream manufacturers is unstable, the inventory of enterprises is at a low level, and the overall supply of goods is still tight, and the supply side is still able to provide price support. On the demand side, overall perspective of downstream demand, the main downstream alumina market is operating strongly and has strong support for the purchase of caustic soda. However, some non-aluminum downstream industries have experienced intensified losses, increased resistance to high-priced sources, significantly reduced procurement enthusiasm, and correspondingly reduced demand. Overall, it is expected that the short-term liquid soda price may have a regional trend of small decline, and the flake soda market may be relatively firm.

Futures:The SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, showed a slight upward trend today. The overall market was lightened. As of the afternoon's close, the transaction situation of the market was as follows: 21.7% more open than 20.3% empty open, and 22.3% empty flat compared with 22.8%. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) continues to narrow, and the dead-fork trend of the KD line at the daily level narrows slightly. Although the MACD line shows a golden fork trend, the two lines tend to intersect. The all-day futures price closed at the positive column with a longer lower shadow line, with support below, and the short-term futures price may continue to fluctuate in the middle track. In the long run, the supply side tends to be loose, and in the later period, it has entered the traditional off-season of demand, and there is basically no good support for the market.

List of caustic soda positions: