Methanol: Methanol is now at a high level and fluctuates. Spot transaction atmosphere is still good

On October 23, the methanol market price index was 2012.21, up 0.17 from yesterday and 0.01% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on October 22:

China CFR 287-289/ton, up 4/ton;

U.S. FOB 111-112 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon;

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton;

European FOB 397-398 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

East China: Taicang: 2405-2425 (0), Zhejiang: 2460-2470 (0), Anhui: 2300-2310 (0),

South China: Guangdong: 2400-2420 (5), Fujian: 2440-2490 (0)

Shandong: South Shandong: 2230-2240 (30), North Shandong: 2220-2240 (20), Linyi: 2280-2295 (50)

North China: Shanxi: 2050-2090 (0), Hebei: 2180-2200 (30)

Central China: Henan: 2140-2470 (30), Two Lakes: 220 -2380 (0)

Northwest: Guanzhong: 2010-2050 (0), northern Shaanxi: 1930-1940 (-10), northern Inner Mongolia: 1920-1960 (-5), southern Inner Mongolia: 1950 (20), Xinjiang: 1720-1775 (0)

Northeast: Liaoning: 2330-2400 (10), Heilongjiang: 2550 (0)

Southwest: Yungui: 2130-2480 (-40), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2100-2480 (0)

Spot market analysis：

Today, the price trends in the methanol market were mixed. Futures fluctuated at high levels. The spot market was organized in a narrow range. Market quotations in some regions of China have been raised. The bidding situation of some manufacturers in the main producing areas is still good, with transactions at a small premium mainly. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. The price for the southern line of Inner Mongolia is around 1950 yuan/ton, with the low-end increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the price for the northern line of Inner Mongolia is around 1,920 - 1,960 yuan/ton. Baotou Steel's starting price today was quoted as at 1890 yuan/ton, with the quantity of 4000 tons, and the final transaction price of 600 tons at 1900 yuan/ton; the starting price of methanol in Yulin was quoted as 1930 yuan/ton, and all the quantity of 5000 tons were sold; All of the New Olympics auctions today were unsold; the starting price of Shenhua Bayannur methanol was quoted as 1870 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, with the quantity of 2800 tons, and all transactions were finally completed at 1900 yuan/ton; the starting price of Shenhua Xilaifeng methanol was quoted as 1850 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, with the quantity of 3250 tons, and all transactions were finally completed at 1,860 -1870 yuan/ton. The market price in Guanzhong area is around 2010-2050 yuan/ton. This week, Changqing's fourth offer rose by 30 yuan/ton to 2080 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, and the small order quoted by 2090 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, and acceptance +15 yuan/ton. Market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2,230 - 2,240 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,220 - 2,240 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Futures fluctuated upward, which boosted the spot market and improved the market transaction atmosphere in the region. The market quotation in North China fluctuated and increased. Today, the price in Hebei was 2,180 - 2,200 yuan/ton. The futures market trend was firm. The mentality of players in the market has improved, and the downstream enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market is still good; the price in Shanxi is 2,050 - 2,090 yuan/ton today. Most manufacturers have increased their prices under the support of little inventory pressure.

Port Market:Today, methanol futures range fluctuated. There were very few spot discussions, with a small number of unilateral price shipments during the month, forward arbitrage and exchange offers, transactions were completed at the right price, and the basis stabilized. The deal was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: 10 transactions: 2420-2425, basis 01-3/-4; 11 transactions: 2420-2430, basis 01+0/+3; 11 transactions: 2440-2450, basis 01+19/+20.

Methanol market freight rate on October 23

Market outlook forecast:Recently, methanol futures have fluctuated at a high level, and the mentality of market operators has improved. Some traders and downstream terminal operators have improved their enthusiasm to enter the market to replenish goods. The quotations of manufacturers in the main producing areas have pushed up. Zhonghao's 600,000-ton natural gas plant has been suspended for maintenance. The methanol market supply in some areas has shrunk, and the shipping pressure of most manufacturers has weakened, and there is a strong willingness to support prices. However, considering the current limited follow-up of downstream demand, it is expected that prices or ranges in the China market will mainly fluctuate in the short term. However, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to crude oil and coal prices, the operation of on-site equipment and the follow-up of downstream demand.