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Analysis of PVC futures: On October 23, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5416, the highest price: 5419, the lowest price: 5368, the position: 873600, the settlement price: 5395, yesterday's settlement: 5382, up 13, the daily trading volume: 873600 lots, the deposited capital: 3.296 billion, and the capital inflow: 59.58 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction prices in the PVC market in China were flexibly adjusted, with some prices slightly increasing and some falling slightly. Comparison of valuations: Among them, North China is stable, East China is stable, low-end prices in South China have increased by 30 yuan/ton, low-end and low-end prices in Northeast China have dropped by 50 yuan/ton, Central China has dropped by 40 yuan/ton, and Southwest China has stabilized. Upstream PVC production companies continue to mainly ship at stable prices. Some companies have tentatively increased their ex-factory prices by 30 yuan/ton, but some high-priced companies have also lowered their ex-factory prices by 50 yuan/ton, mostly to digest inventories. Futures continued to be organized sideways, and offers from various regions in the spot market were relatively flexible, with some prices maintained and some rising slightly. The basis has not changed much. Among them, the basis offer for East China contract 01-(50-120-150-180), South China contract 01-(0-50), northern region 01-(320-380), some goods from Southwest region 01-(560), and some high-end goods are sent to 01-(130). The spot market is maintained today, there are no significant changes in trading, and downstream still need to purchase.
From a futures perspective: The opening price of the PVC2501 contract opened high and low at night, but the decline was not large. After the early trading session started to narrow the price, it fell slightly within the session, and then the V-shaped reversal returned to close the opening price. There was little fluctuation in the afternoon. The 2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 5,368 to 5,419. The price difference was 51. The 01 contract increased its position by 17856 lots. As of now, 873600 lots have been held. The 2505 contract closed at 5710, with 120989 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The operating fluctuation range of the futures price of the PVC2501 contract has further narrowed. Judging from the trend of the futures price, although it seems to be ups and downs, it actually runs within 51 points. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) have the intention of turning downward, and the technical closing line is slightly empty. Today's market increased slightly. In terms of transactions, the market opened 25.2% short compared with 23.9% more. The operation of the market has returned to a situation dominated by vacancies. Currently, there is less guidance from policy ports and message ports, and the overall commodities are basically arranged sideways within a small range. Therefore, in the short term, we believe that the operation of futures prices may continue to operate between the middle and lower rails, and continue to observe the operating range of 5300-5450.
In terms of spot: During the week, the two markets have been consolidating sideways, with prices mainly fluctuating slightly, and no obvious directional movements have been seen on the futures market. However, they have returned to the trend of open pressure. Most of the transactions in the spot market are based on demand, and the purchase parts and frequencies have not changed, and there are no variables at the supply and demand level. Policy information in the market is relatively scarce, or there are some interpretation policies, but they have little impact on the overall commodity market. On the external market, oil prices rose for the second consecutive trading day. The market was concerned about the conflict in the Middle East and concerns about supply continued. Any improvement in economic growth will boost fuel consumption. However, some market analysts said that the impact of stimulus measures on oil demand may take some time to emerge. Overall, in the short term, the PVC spot market price in China will continue to be consolidated at a narrow low level, and the market is waiting for new news guidance.
