Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the overall soda ash market in China is mainly stable, and prices in some regions have been adjusted weakly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton. Recently, due to the great impact of social inventory pressure, the operating load of many soda ash companies has dropped slightly; market sentiment has fluctuated greatly, and the quotations of some manufacturers have been raised at a low level; while downstream demand is average, and there is still only a need for procurement, and the enthusiasm for obtaining goods is not high; The overall wait-and-see attitude is strong, and the fundamentals of the soda ash market are still weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 23, was 1521 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1512 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% within the day. The intraday high was 1545 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1494 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1245906 lots, a month-on-month increase of 1521 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices are mainly high and falling back. The emotional reaction driven by the news of production cuts has cooled down. Although the logic of large excess has not changed, the signal of reducing burdens by high-cost companies and recent concerns about environmental issues in various places have given the market The expectation of improving the gap between supply and demand does indeed play a certain supporting role in price valuation. In the short term, it still needs to be observed whether the supply-side disturbance problem will further ferment, while the demand side still needs to pay attention to the drive of policy guidance. Especially around important meetings near the end of the month, market policy news may once again disturb market sentiment. Before the above conditions cannot be falsified, it will not be ruled out that subsequent supply disturbances and policy guidance will occur.
market outlook
In the future, some soda ash manufacturers have planned to reduce production production, and market supply will decline; downstream demand has not improved significantly; market sentiment disturbance in the short term may bring about a certain degree of price rebound, but it is still limited by the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention needs to be paid to the fundamentals of soda ash. Adjustment.
