Caustic soda: The ex-factory price of new soda tablets soared, and the futures price bucked the trend and led the decline in the chemical sector

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 23, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2715, the highest price: 2715, the lowest price: 2596, the position: 80676, the settlement price: 2651, yesterday's settlement: 2695, down: 44, the closing price: 2617, the daily trading volume: 332332 lots, the deposited capital: 1.013 billion, and the capital outflow: 8.75 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market continues to show an upward trend, but the growth rate of the liquid caustic soda market has slowed down slightly. Although the ex-factory price of flake caustic soda has increased significantly, the increase in the center of gravity of transaction prices in various regional markets has been relatively limited. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% ionic membrane alkali increased by 10-100 yuan/ton, 48% ionic membrane alkali increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of 99% flake alkali increased by 350 yuan/ton. Market transaction prices The regional increase of 50-100 yuan/ton; the price range of alkali at other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, liquid soda prices have risen regionally. Prices in most regions have remained stable, and some regions have continued to rise. Prices in the main producing areas continue to rise at high levels and are still supported by fundamentals; downstream receiving conditions in some regions are positive, and company shipments are relatively smooth, supporting local price increases; the increase in liquid soda prices in the northwest region is mainly due to the relatively strong price of flake soda, which provides liquid soda brings some support. Market performance in other regions is relatively stable, and market supply and demand sides have not changed much, and most of them maintain their previous levels of operation. Manufacturers in a few regions of upstream production companies have raised their ex-factory quotations, ranging from 10 to 100 yuan/ton. Among them, manufacturers in Central China have increased their ex-factory quotations by a relatively large amount. Manufacturers in most other regions have mainly stabilized prices and are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the caustic soda market continues to move upwards. The ex-factory quotations of most manufacturers in the northwest region have increased significantly, and market transaction prices in some regions have increased slightly in some regions. The equipment operation of mainstream manufacturers is unstable, the supply of caustic soda is still relatively tight, the market transaction situation is relatively mild, and the overall price is at a high level.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 continues to fall downward. The market fluctuated slightly at night, fluctuated downward in the morning, adjusted slightly in the late, and fell slightly again in the afternoon. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2596 to 2715, with a spread of 119.01 contracts adding 2154 lots, and so far, 80676 lots have been held.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on October 23 was 3353.04, up 77.91, or 2.379%. China's caustic soda index rose.

Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:

In terms of spot:At present, in the liquid soda market, positive fundamentals still exist. There are still new maintenance equipment in the near future. Coupled with equipment that has not been restored in the early stages of maintenance, the supply side still has support for the market. Prices in some regions may still have an upward trend, but in most regions The driving force for market growth is slightly insufficient, and prices may tend to stabilize and consolidate. It is expected that the liquid soda market will still have a regional upward trend in the short term. In terms of the caustic soda market, the price of new orders by production companies in the northwest region has increased significantly this week, and the current market price of caustic soda is also at a relatively high level. At present, the supply of caustic soda at the supply side is tight, and the transportation is still poor. It still has support for the market, and the mentality of the operators is strong. In the short term, the market price of caustic soda may still be adjusted upwards.

Futures:The futures price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, continues to fluctuate downward. At present, the futures price has shown a three-day negative decline trend. The market has increased positions downward, and there are relatively more short positions entering the market than long positions entering the market. As of the afternoon's close, the transaction situation on the market: 21.4% of the market opened was higher than the market opened was 22.1%, and the market was lower than the market was higher than the market opened 22.1%, and the market was lower than the market was higher than the market. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) has narrowed, the turning trend of the upper track has a downward trend, the trend of dead forks on the KD line at the daily level has expanded, and the trend of gold forks on the MACD line has narrowed significantly. The main contract of caustic soda led the decline in the chemical sector, with a daily decline of more than 3%. The overall market was consolidating downward. In the later period, as the off-season of demand approached, and the early maintenance equipment was expected to recover in the later period, the market was basically driven by the market or gradually weakened in the later period., short-term futures prices or shock correction.

List of caustic soda positions: