Methanol: Futures rebound from low and spot markets are mixed

On October 22, the methanol market price index was 2012.04, which was 27.11 higher than yesterday, and an increase of 1.37% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on October 22:

China CFR 283-286 USD/ton, down 6 USD/ton;

U.S. FOB 112-113 cents/gallon, down 2 cents/gallon;

Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton;

European FOB 395-396 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

East China: Taicang: 2405-2420 (25), Zhejiang: 2460-2470 (10), Anhui: 2300-2310 (-40),

South China: Guangdong: 2395-2410 (15), Fujian: 2440-2500 (20)

Shandong: South Shandong: 2200 (0), North Shandong: 2200-2230 (20), Linyi: 2230-2240 (0)

North China: Shanxi: 2050-2090 (15), Hebei: 2150-2180 (20)

Central China: Henan: 2110-2150 (30), Two Lakes: 2220-2380 (-60)

Northwest: Guanzhong: 2010-2050 (30), Northern Shaanxi: 1940-1945 (40), Inner Mongolia North Line: 1925-1955 (35), Inner Mongolia South Line: 1930 (0), Xinjiang: 1920-2030 (0)

Northeast: Liaoning: 2290-2390 (0), Heilongjiang: 2550 (0)

Southwest: Yungui: 2170-2350 (-20), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2120-2480 (0)

Spot market analysis：

Today, the methanol market price rebounded from a low level, futures fluctuated and increased, and port spot market prices increased with the market. The transaction atmosphere in the China market has improved compared with the previous period. Most transactions have a premium, and the mentality of some players in the market has improved slightly. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been increased within a narrow range. The price for the southern line of Inner Mongolia has been around 1930 yuan/ton, which has remained unchanged from yesterday. The price for the northern line of Inner Mongolia has been around 1,925 - 1,955 yuan/ton, and the low-end has been increased by 35 yuan/ton. The starting price of Yulin Yankuang was quoted as reaching 1890 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 6000 tons. Finally, all transactions were completed at 1,940 - 1,945 yuan/ton; Rongxin's starting price for methanol today was quoted at 1890 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, with the quantity of 3000 tons. In the end, all transactions were completed at 1925 yuan/ton; Changqing Methanol's third quotation this week increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2050 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, small orders quoted at 2060 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, acceptance +15 yuan/ton; Shaanxi Runzhong (Changwu) methanol's third quotation this week was raised by 50 yuan/ton to 2060 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal. Market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2200 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2200- 2,230 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Futures stopped falling and rose instead, and the mentality of players in the market improved. The market quotation in North China fluctuated and increased. Today, the price in Hebei was 2,150 - 2,180 yuan/ton. The futures market trend was firm, which made the market sentiment improve and the market price in the region increased; Shanxi was quoted today at 2,050 - 2,090 yuan/ton. With the increase in the futures market, the market trading atmosphere improved.

Port Market:Today, methanol futures consolidated slightly stronger. Spot offers are limited. Forward arbitrage operations are the main ones, with a small number of unilateral selling high and selling low, and the basis is stable. Discussions were deadlocked in the afternoon, and exchanges of goods were frequent near and far every month. The overall transaction was average. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: spot transaction: 2405; transaction under 10:2405-2425, basis 01-3/-2; transaction under 11:2425, basis 01+2; transaction under 11:2425-2445, basis 01+19/+214.

Methanol market freight rate on October 22

Market outlook forecast:With the increase in the futures price of methanol's main contract, to a certain extent, the mentality of on-site operators has improved. Some downstream and terminal downstream operators have improved their enthusiasm to enter the market to replenish goods. The quotations of manufacturers in the main producing areas have pushed up, and the overall transaction atmosphere is better. However, considering that the overall performance of methanol fundamentals is still maintaining the previous situation and there is no substantial positive support in the short term, it is expected that the China market price will continue to push up in the short term or be relatively limited, and the short-term may remain dominated by range fluctuations. However, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to crude oil and coal prices, the operation of on-site equipment and the follow-up of downstream demand.